Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Tuesday’s FIFA World Cup match between France and Senegal.
Group I at the World Cup has received the moniker “the Group of Death”, as it features 2018 winners and 2022 runners-up France, the most impressive attack in European qualifying in Norway, and African champions Senegal. It’s an unfortunate set-up for Iraq, the group’s bottom-feeder.
The group’s action will open with a match between its two marquee teams, when France and Senegal play at the New York/New Jersey Stadium at 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Les Bleus are -215 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to start the World Cup with all three points, and the Lions of Teranga are +600. There are +350 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated affair and provide my favorite bet.
As might be expected from the continental giants, both teams were dominant in their respective qualifying campaigns. France won five of its six matches, with the only damage a 2-2 draw against Iceland in which neither Kylian Mbappé nor Ousmane Dembélé played. Despite losing to the Ivory Coast, Les Bleus have also looked strong in their friendlies, and they enter the tournament as one of the favorites to win it all. Meanwhile, Senegal had seven wins and three draws, and the only time it conceded more than one goal was a draw against fellow World Cup participants DR Congo. The Lions of Teranga also had an impressive run through AFCON in the winter, allowing just two goals throughout the tournament and ultimately winning the final, 1-0, on Moroccan soil (though adjudication in the courts eventually overturned their title).
On paper, this France team has no weaknesses. Les Bleus have an unstoppable front three, with Mbappé partnering reigning Ballon d’Or winner Dembélé and Michael Olise, who registered 48 goal contributions in all competitions for Bayern Münich. That’s not to mention their depth up front, as Bradley Barcola and Desiré Doué would be starters for just about any other nation but will likely come off the bench on Tuesday. All in all, France managed the seventh-most shots on target per 90 minutes in qualifying, and while it wasn’t clinical, managing only 0.28 goals per shot on target, it was without Dembélé for most of the competition. Further back, Les Bleus might well have the best center-back duo in the world in William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano, and goalie Mike Maignan ranked fourth in Serie A in save percentage. They allowed the second-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes during qualifying, and they were quite disciplined, committing the seventh-fewest fouls. Despite dominating possession, they were also only caught offsides four times in six matches.
Still, even a team as talented as France will have to play well to beat Senegal. The Lions of Teranga have a nice mix of youngsters and veterans, as while their front line is led by the ageless Sadio Mané, who scored twice in the pre-tournament friendly against the United States, 23-year-old Pepe Matar Sarr was second in goals in qualifying and 24-year-old Nicolas Jackson had a tremendous season on loan with Die Roten. Thanks to Mané’s and Sarr’s exploits, Senegal ranked ninth in goals per 90 minutes in qualifying. But while they have the attacking talent to bother Les Bleus’ defense, the Lions of Teranga aren’t a one-note attacking team; defensive midfielder Lamine Camara is one of the most promising talents at his position, and El Hadji Malick Diouf was one of the lone bright spots for relegated West Ham, notching five assists. Senegal conceded just three goals in qualifying, allowing the fourth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes during its AFCON triumph. It was also good at playing the offsides trap in AFCON, catching opponents in poor positions at the ninth-highest rate, which will certainly be useful against France’s ultra-aggressive attack.
So far this tournament, the European giants have disappointed, so Les Bleus should know not to underestimate the Lions of Teranga. After all, Senegal beat the Ivory Coast in AFCON 2023 and the Elephants just beat France in a friendly. With Mané on the left wing and Ndiaye on the right wing, the Lions of Teranga have the attacking talent to take advantage of Les Bleus’ comparatively weak fullbacks, and I can’t see Maignan keeping them off the scoresheet entirely. The issue is that Senegal isn’t quite clinical enough with its passing to consistently break France’s high press, and its leaders, center-back Kalidou Koulibaly and goalie Édouard Mendy, both play relatively weak competition in the Saudi Pro League. It won’t be easy, but I like Les Bleus to win a high-scoring affair.
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