Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Wednesday’s FIFA World Cup match between Colombia and Uzbekistan.
The 2026 World Cup’s expansion to 48 teams has allowed four new participants to experience the tournament. Already, Curaçao got throttled by Germany and Jordan lost to Austria, while Cabo Verde managed a stunning draw against Spain. Uzbekistan will be the final of the four debutants to take the pitch for the first time.
The White Wolves will open up their tournament against Colombia at 10 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) on Wednesday in Mexico City. Los Cafeteros return to the tournament as among the favorites after failing to qualify for the 2022 edition.
Colombia is a -265 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Uzbekistan is +850. There are +380 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated affair and provide my favorite bet.
The White Wolves had the more convincing qualifying campaign, but they faced much easier competition than Los Cafeteros did. Colombia had a couple of impressive results early in the qualification period, beating both Brazil and Argentina in Bogotá, but it ended with three losses, three draws, and just two wins over weak sides in Bolivia and Venezuela across its final eight matches. Additionally, Los Cafeteros lost friendlies against Croatia and France in March. Like Colombia, Uzbekistan got the results it needed to, drawing four times with Iran and beating Qatar on the final day to secure qualification. The White Wolves looked sharp in their final pre-tournament friendly, equalizing the Netherlands late and only losing on a pair of penalties. They also missed a pair of easy looks in the first half against Canada in the prior match, a 1-0 defeat.
Just like in 2014, when Los Cafeteros were led by World Cup Golden Boot winner James Rodríguez, they have another of the world’s most talented wingers on the roster. 29-year-old Luis Díaz is in the heart of his prime, recording 29 goal contributions in the Bundesliga for Bayern Münich after a successful four-season stint with Liverpool. He led the team with seven goals in continental qualifying, with Luis Suárez contributing four in just 113 minutes and Rodríguez adding three goals and seven assists. Colombia had the second-best attack in South America throughout qualifying, scoring 28 goals and managing the most shots on target per 90 minutes and the fourth-most goals per shot on target. However, Los Cafeteros don’t have quite as much star power in the back, as center-back Davinson Sánchez now plies his trade for Galatasaray and goalie Camilo Vargas plays in Liga MX, and they gave up the most goals and shots on target of any South American team to qualify. Additionally, they were pretty indisciplined, committing the most fouls in South American qualification, and they were caught offsides at the highest frequency and intercepted the fifth-most times.
Uzbekistan is more of a two-man show. The White Wolves’ star is defender Abdukodir Khusanov, who’s made 21 starts across the last season and a half for Manchester City. They also have one of the world’s hottest attackers, Eldor Shomurodov, who won the Turkish Süper Lig’s Golden Boot this season after smashing home 22 goals in 34 appearances for Başakşehir. Despite Shomurodov’s brilliance, Uzbekistan’s attack is one of the weakest in the competition, as it scored the second-fewest goals of any Asian team to qualify, though at least it attempted the fourth-most shots on target per 90 minutes. What the White Wolves lack in the attack, they make up for it in the defense; Fabio Cannavaro likes to play a 5-4-1 and strike on the counter, and they kept 10 clean sheets during qualifications. Khusanov is the star, but Rustam Ashurmatov made some excellent sliding stops in the friendly against Canada, and right-back Khojiakbar Alijonov has a market value of more than one million Euros as well. In between the sticks, Utkir Yusopov ranked eighth in save percentage during Asian qualifiers, and, perhaps critically, he saved both of the penalties he faced.
Given Uzbekistan’s defensive formation, Colombia should control possession, and it should have the lion’s share of chances. At some point, Los Cafeteros should find a way through, as Díaz has been too clinical for both club and country, and they’re unlikely to be caught offsides with the White Wolves sitting back. Colombia should be able to score even amid heavy pressure, given its ability to finish crosses against a team whose tallest starting defender is the six-foot-two Khusanov. Shomorudov is clinical enough in the attack and Colombia mediocre enough in the passing lanes that it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Uzbekistan struck on the counter, but I’d bank on the South Americans to take all three points.
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