Alex Hunter breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Sunday’s WNBA matchup between the Tempo and Dream.
The Tempo are hosting the Dream on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta is favored by 7.5 points and this game carries a total of 171.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
After a rough start to their debut season in the WNBA, the Tempo have looked better recently, winning four of their last six. For the season, the Tempo are 7-6 and they rank eighth in net rating.
The Tempo are led by Brittney Sykes, who is having a career season as Toronto’s featured player. The 11-year veteran is averaging 21.5 points and a 29.4% usage rate, both of which are career highs. Joining the Tempo also has resulted in Marina Mabrey having a career-best season, averaging 18.6 PPG, including 21 and 27 points in her last two.
While Sykes and Mabrey are a strong back-court duo, Toronto is a beat up team right now. Kiki Rice (ankle) and Nyara Sabally (hamstring) will both be out for the second straight game. These two are both averaging around 12.0 PPG and with them inactive Friday vs. the Mystics – who are 5-6 and rank 10th in net rating – the Tempo lost 96-95. With Rice and Sabally off the court this season, the Tempo’s net rating is an ugly -6.5 per 100 possessions.
With them missing Sunday, Sykes and Mabrey will both garner big usage rates and could put up strong numbers, but Toronto’s offense as a whole is likely to struggle vs. the Dream’s stout defense that ranks second in rating this season.
Atlanta is coming off a 104-90 loss to the Liberty on Thursday, but the Dream had won four of it’s previous five before this. Atlanta is 8-4 and the team ranks fifth in net rating. The Dream have a compelling big three of Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese.
Grey and Howard are leading the club with 19.1 and 18.5 PPG, respectively, both of which are career highs. Meanwhile, Reese is averaging a double-double of 14.6 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. The 24-year-old just scored a season-best 25 points vs. the Liberty on Thursday, marking her third straight effort of 17 points.
The Tempo have home-court for this matchup, but the Dream are the better club, particularly with Rice and Sabally sidelined. This shorthanded Toronto team should struggle to score against Atlanta’s strong defense and the Dream should win this game.
Atlanta -7.5 is a viable play, but there is some hesitation, as the Dream are a league-worst 2-4 ATS on the road. Instead, under 171.5 points is my preferred bet for this contest. Thanks to their great defense, the Dream are 7-5 for the under this season.
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