With Commissioner’s Cup play winding to a close, both the Storm and Fire know where they stand. There won’t be any Final action for Seattle or Portland. But there’s still a lot to play for in this regular season and both teams have to bring their A-game.

Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET. The Fire are 3.5-point home favorites with -170 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Storm upset is priced at +142 with the game total set at O/U 162.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Storm-Fire game.

Storm vs. Fire Preview

So far, so bad for the Seattle Storm. At 3-12, the tank is fully on as the team navigates the first year of a full rebuild. This eight-game losing streak took them from frisky to the bottom of the Western Conference. However, the positive signs are there.

When Dominique Malonga is on the court, she’s absolutely dominating. At 6-foot-6, she has a defensive presence around the rim that few players can match. The sheer number of players who see her lurking in the paint and decide to turn the other way is staggering. That alone makes her immensely valuable, but it doesn’t stop there. Malonga’s game beyond the arc has developed well and she’s rounding out her offensive game as a whole. The playmaking and general court feel need work, but for a 20-year-old, her impact is being felt. Seattle’s -1.3 net rating with Malonga on the floor is the best on the team, and they’re 10.9 points per 100 better with Malonga on the floor than off.

She’s not the only bright spot. Rookie Awa Fam has hit the ground running, proving to be a defensive Swiss Army Knife for head coach Sonia Raman. Stef Dolson is giving them good minutes and could fetch a reasonable price at the trade deadline if they so choose. Jordan Horston and Flau’jae Johnson have taken their lumps offensively, but the defense is outstanding. All in all, it has to feel good for Seattle that one side of the floor feels largely solved. There’s a long way to go fixing this offense, but time is on the team’s side.

This debut season has to be rated as a success for Portland so far. At 7-9, the Fire are in spitting distance of a playoff spot and are showing a lot of fight. Unfortunately, the underlying numbers are catching up to them; the Fire have lost five of their last six to drop below .500, and their net rating cratered to 13th out of 15 WNBA teams. Not what you want to see.

To turn this around, the offense needs to be better. Bridget Carleton came out of the gate swinging before taking a significant step back. With Sug Sutton gone, Carla Leite is the only reliable playmaker on the roster; Sarah Ashlee Barker is doing her best to step up in that regard, but it’s not enough. Their defense remains overly reliant on Emily Engstler bailing them out. Some of this is the unavoidable reality that an expansion team is thrown together.

In this matchup, so much comes down to the offenses. Portland’s offense will be hard-pressed to turn things around against this Seattle defense. A lot comes down to the perimeter shot-making and whether they can pull Malonga out of the paint consistently. Seattle’s offense has a clear size advantage, but Portland has been great all season at limiting two-point shots. If they can put their bigs in good spots on the low block and in the paint, they will put together a good offensive performance, but that is no guarantee.

Now we know what to make of these two teams. Who is going to take home the win?

Storm vs. Fire Pick, Best Bet

A struggling offense facing a great defense. A terrible offense facing a mediocre defense. That all adds up to an under for me. Portland’s slumping attack is going to have a hard time generating looks, and the Storm don’t take advantage of mismatches the way you’d hope they do. This one is going to be a real grind-it-out, low-scoring affair. Even with the low total, I’m confident in the under.

Best Bet: Under 162.5 Total Points (-108)