The wait is almost over for the UFC’s historic event on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C. UFC Freedom 250 takes place on Sunday, June 14, beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+. This card features two title fights: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje for the Undisputed Lightweight Championship, while Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane face off for the Interim Heavyweight title.

Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of this week’s UFC Freedom 250 card at the White House.

Best Bets for UFC Freedom 250

• Ilia Topuria to win in Rounds 1-2 (-160) vs. Justin Gaethje: Topuria has won 14 of his 17 MMA fights in the first two rounds. With Topuria’s tremendous power and defensive prowess on the feet, it will be extremely hard for Gaethje to find success. 
• Sean O’Malley to win by Decision (-105) vs. Aiemann Zahabi: O’Malley regained his confidence against Song Yadong and now has a perfect matchup against Zahabi, who lacks the speed and quickness to keep up with the former Bantamweight king.
• Bo Nickal to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-110) vs. Kyle Daukaus: This is an excellent fight with two rising Middleweights, but Nickal has the advantage in this contest due to his top-tier wrestling and improved striking.

UFC Freedom 250 Best Bets Breakdown

Ilia Topuria to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-160)

Topuria enters this fight on one of the greatest runs in UFC history. He is 17-0 overall with 15 finishes and has scored a knockout in his previous three fights, which were for a title. Although Topuria hasn’t been the most active champion, he is meticulous; each time he steps into the Octagon, he produces a masterpiece. Since losing to Max Holloway at UFC 300, Justin Gaethje has won two straight fights against Rafael Fiziev and, most recently, beat Paddy Pimblett for the Interim title in January. Topuria’s previous two opponents, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira, both finished Gaethje.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Topuria is a massive -500 favorite, with Gaethje being the underdog at +380. As Topuria was traditionally a Featherweight, Gaethje has the physical advantages, being taller (5’11” vs. 5’7″) with a greater standing reach (70″ vs. 69″). Both fighters do their best work on the feet, but statistically Gaethje has the edge, landing 6.48 significant strikes per minute compared to Topuria’s 4.81. Topuria is better defensively, as he absorbs 3.22 fewer significant strikes per minute than Gaethje.

Topuria does an excellent job of picking apart opponents without letting them get into their rhythm. Although Gaethje is skilled, he has come up short in his previous two Undisputed title fights. After knocking out three straight future Hall of Famers (Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira), it would truly be shocking if his run ends here. 14 of Topuria’s 17 career victories have come in the first two rounds. Gaethje is wild and gets hit often, which likely won’t bode well against Topuria. With that said, I’m backing Topuria to win in Rounds 1-2 at -160.

Sean O’Malley to Win by Decision (-105)

Former UFC Bantamweight Champion No. 3 Sean O’Malley is taking on No. 6 Aiemann Zahabi at Sunday’s Freedom 250 card. O’Malley most recently beat Song Yadong at UFC 324 in January and is attempting to increase his winning streak to two for the first time since March 2024. Zahabi has flown under the radar as he is currently on a seven-fight winning streak and hasn’t suffered a defeat since May 2019.

In this contest, O’Malley is a -440 favorite with Zahabi being a +340 underdog. O’Malley has the edge on paper, as he is taller by three inches (5’11” vs. 5’8″) and has a four-inch reach advantage (72″ vs. 68″). Even though both fighters in this matchup are primarily strikers, O’Malley is still on a different level. O’Malley averages 6.05 significant strikes per minute compared to Zahabi’s 4.54. The former champion is also more efficient (60% vs. 47%) and absorbs fewer strikes per minute (3.40 vs. 4.08).

Since O’Malley is such a big favorite, I’m taking him to win by decision at -105. O’Malley has won his previous two fights by decision, and three of his last four victories have come by decision. His last knockout came in August 2023, and it was his only knockout victory in the last four years. 

Bo Nickal to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-110)

Bo Nickal is coming off a big knockout over Rodolfo Vieira at UFC 322 in November. Nickal now faces another tough veteran in Kyle Daukaus, who has won six straight bouts. Daukaus returned to the UFC in 2025 and scored first-round finishes over Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert.

Both fighters in this contest have a 76″ standing reach, while Daukaus is taller (6’2″ vs. 6’1″). Although Daukaus is a skilled fighter, Nickal is more well-rounded. Nickal averages more significant strikes per minute (3.35 vs. 3.32) and more takedowns per 15 minutes (3.10 vs. 2.08). Even though Nickal is known for his elite wrestling, he has continued to improve as a striker throughout his MMA career.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Nickal is a -310 favorite with Daukaus being a +250 underdog. With seven of Nickal’s eight wins coming by finish, I’m taking him at -110 to pick up a victory by KO/TKO/DQ or submission. If Nickal is more aggressive on the feet while mixing in takedowns, he should be able to get the best of Daukaus.

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