Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Thursday’s FIFA World Cup match between Czechia and South Africa.
With the newly-expanded 48-team World Cup format, the eight best third-place teams advance to the knockout stage along with the 12 group winners and runners-up. Of course, Group A is nowhere near decided, but for Czechia and South Africa, Thursday’s 12 p.m. ET match in Atlanta could be critical, as both teams lost their opening matches and trail Mexico and South Korea, who play later Thursday. If there’s a winner in the early afternoon game, it’s easy to see that team becoming one of the best third-place sides.
The Representatives are -130 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Bafana Bafana are +390. There are +275 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this do-or-die affair and provide my favorite bet.
Though both teams lost, Czechia looked the better side on Matchday 1. While the Representatives were out-played by South Korea overall, they at least had a few solid attacking chances and even took the lead after Ladislav Krejči headed home Vladimír Coufal’s long throw-in in the 59th minute. The better team won in the end, as the Taegeuk Warriors scored twice in the final half hour to claim a deserved 2-1 win, but Czechia at least showed signs of life. The same can’t be said for South Africa in its opener against Mexico, as Bafana Bafana not only lost 2-0 while managing only two shots on goal and controlling only 40% of the possession; Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane also picked up red cards and will be suspended for Tuesday’s match. It was an unmitigated disaster in all facets of the game for South Africa, which is staring down a more disappointing exit than it had in its only prior appearance in 2010, when it became the first host nation to be eliminated in the group stage.
On paper, the Representatives have enough talent to make it through the group. In Bayer Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick, they have a genuine star who finished fourth in the Bundesliga in goals this season despite Die Werkself’s disappointing campaign overall. Schick is paired with wingers Pavel Šulc, who scored 11 goals in just 27 appearances for Lyon this season, and Lukaš Provod, who led the Czech First League in assists for the second consecutive season. Overall, they more or less did their jobs, managing 0.83 expected goals’ worth of chances in the opening match and putting four of their seven shots on target. However, Czechia’s build-up play was an issue; it completed just 70.3% of its passes, the second-lowest mark in the competition so far, and it didn’t have a shot from either a build-up or direct attack all game. The Representatives also struggled defensively, allowing the fourth-most expected goals and winning both ground and aerial duels at among the lowest rates, an especially disappointing performance given that all of their defenders are regular starters either in the Czech league or elsewhere in Europe. They played relatively cleanly, but it wasn’t an inspiring performance, all things considered.
By the latest FIFA World Rankings, Bafana Bafana are the eighth-worst team in this competition, and the opening match suggested that their ranking is far too high. The early goal they conceded to Mexico was a compounded error, as Sithole lost the ball deep in his own territory and Julián Quiñones sent it right through Ronwen Williams’ legs. Their best paper on player, Burnley striker Lyle Foster, was bad enough that he was pulled after just 55 minutes, and they managed just 0.07 expected goals, the fewest of any team in its opening game. El Tri choked them away from the ball to such an extent that they attempted the fourth-fewest passes into the final third of any team. Additionally, South Africa also allowed the 10th-most expected goals while winning aerial duels at the third-lowest rate and ground duels at the eighth-lowest rate, and unfortunately for Bafana Bafana, that might be sustainable, given that their squad is the second-shortest on average. I’m not incredibly sold by their defensive midfield depth behind the suspended Sithole, and Williams didn’t exactly have a strong performance in AFCON.
South Africa will need to play much more cleanly than it did in the opener if it wants to pull off the upset. Bafana Bafana allowed five shots from set pieces against Mexico, among the most in the competition so far, and Czechia is excellent from set pieces, managing the sixth-most expected goals from such situations against South Korea. The Representatives’ struggles to complete passes shouldn’t be a problem against South Africa, which doesn’t like to press, and their comfort in the air should yield a goal. Bafana Bafana makes too many errors, and Czechia, a relatively aggressive defense, should be able to pounce. I’ll take the European side to claim all three points in what should be a pretty ugly affair.
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