Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Tuesday’s FIFA World Cup match between Argentina and Algeria.
Only two teams have ever won back-to-back World Cups, as Italy triumphed in 1934 and 1938 and Brazil won in 1958 and 1962. Spain in 2014 and Germany in 2018 even failed to make it out of the group stage. Argentina will have to defy the long arc of history if it wants to lift the World Cup trophy again in 2026.
The Albiceleste will open their World Cup on Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) at Kansas City Stadium with a match against Algeria. The Fennecs are making their first appearance at the tournament since 2014.
Argentina is a -245 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and Algeria is +800. A draw is available at +360.
Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated affair and provide my favorite bet.
South America’s qualifying tournament is notoriously difficult, with 18 games spread out across more than two calendar years, but the Albiceleste were dominant, finishing 12-2-4 and qualifying nine points ahead of second-place Ecuador. In the interim, they also won the 2024 Copa América on United States soil, ousting Colombia 1-0 in the final of that tournament. While Argentina hasn’t challenged itself in pre-tournament friendlies, playing lower-tier African, North American, and European sides, it more than justified its status as one of the favorites through its qualification performances. The Fennecs were similarly impressive in qualifying, dropping just five points (all to No. 81 Guinea), and they drew with Uruguay and beat the Netherlands in pre-tournament friendlies. Algeria also made the quarterfinals of AFCON in the winter, beating fellow participants DR Congo in the Round of 16.
Even in qualifying, the Albiceleste were led by the ageless Lionel Messi, who scored eight goals and added three assists in 12 matches, and they have arguably the strongest striker partnership they’ve ever surrounded him with (Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez). Additionally, their attacking midfield options are high-quality; Alexis Mac Allister, a regular starter for Liverpool, is a better player than he was four years ago, and Giuliano Simeone was a breakout star for Champions League semifinalists Atlético Madrid. Argentina scored three more goals than any other team during qualifying, attempting the second-most shots on target per 90 minutes and recording the most goals per shot on target. Additionally, the Albiceleste are defensively stout, as Nicolás Otamendi hasn’t lost a step in his age-37 season and Cristian Romero wasn’t the reason Tottenham Hotspur almost got relegated from the Premier League. World Cup hero Emiliano Martínez won the Yashin Trophy in back-to-back years and just let Aston Villa to the Europa League title. Given that, it’s not a surprise that Argentina was among the best defensive teams during South American qualifying, conceding fewer goals than only Ecuador and giving up the fewest shots on target per 90 minutes. The Albiceleste were also extremely disciplined, rarely getting whistled for fouls or booked for infractions.
The Fennecs have plenty of talent of their own, both tapping into their diaspora in France and investing in domestic infrastructure. Like Argentina, they have a legendary veteran in 2016 African Footballer of the Year Riyad Mahrez, but it was actually Wolfsburg striker Mohamed Amoura who led the team (and all of African qualifying) with 10 goals. Amoura also had 11 goal contributions in the Bundesliga this season despite the team’s relegation. As a result of its forward depth, Algeria scored the sixth-most goals per 90 minutes in African qualifying and averaged the seventh-most shots on target per 90 minutes during its AFCON run. The Fennecs also have some strong defenders, including Manchester City’s Rayan Aït-Nouri, who contributed four goals and seven assists for Wolves in 2024-25, and Dortmund’s Ramy Bensebaini, a regular starter in both the Bundesliga and the Champions League. Goalkeeper is a weakness, as Luca Zidane (son of France legend Zinedine) only starts for La Liga 2 side Granada, but he allowed only three goals in the Africa Cup of Nations as Algeria limited its opponents to the seventh-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and the eighth-fewest goals per shot on target.
Argentina should be able to sneak at least one past the relatively inexperienced Zidane. Messi is still special, averaging 1.30 goal contributions per 90 minutes in MLS this season, and Martínez (0.44 goals per shot on target in Serie A) is one of the most clinical finishers in the world, even if he’s been inconsistent for the national team. I don’t entirely trust the Albiceleste’s defense against stronger competition, as fullbacks Nicolás Tagliafico and Nahuel Molina only occasionally started for their clubs this past season, but as solid as Mahrez and Amoura are, the Fennecs just weren’t quite clinical enough in AFCON for me to back them. If Mahrez can only produce 12 goal contributions in 27 matches in the Saudi Pro League, I struggle to envision him doing much better against Emi Martínez. The defending champions should start off with a clean sheet.
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