Zach Thompson details his best bets for Round 1 of the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.
The PGA TOUR is ready for the third major championship of the year, which will take place at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island. The scoring conditions are expected to be extremely difficult throughout the week, but especially on Thursday, when the wind is forecast to be intense. The elite full field offers many great options across a variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s pinpoint a few of the top bets for Round 1 of the U.S. Open this year.
The field of 156 golfers will tee off in groups of three from both hole No. 1 and hole No. 10. The morning wave starts at 6:35 a.m. ET with the final groups in the morning beginning at 8:47 a.m. ET. The afternoon groups tee off from 12:30 p.m. ET through 2:42 p.m. ET. The USGA sent a memo informing the player that they plan to syringe greens between the morning and afternoon waves on Thursday and Friday due to high winds, and that the greens will be slower as a result. While the officials are trying to balance the advantages among groups, shifting wind and weather will likely cause the course difficulty to fluctuate throughout the event. As always, be ready to read and react to how scores are trending if you are live-betting the event.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1 of the U.S. Open on Thursday, June 18.
Young is one of the favorites this year at Shinnecock Hills, and he’ll tee off at 7:30 a.m. in the early wave. He will be playing with the 2018 champion, Brooks Koepka, and two-time PGA TOUR winner this year, Chris Gotterup, at this event. They’ll be among the first big names on the course, and if there’s an advantage to getting out early, Young should be able to capitalize.
I highlighted all the reasons I like Young this week in my cash game picks, highlighting both his strong form and good history in tough venues like this one. My colleague Blake Krass also highlighted Young as an option he likes for the DraftKings King of the Course contest.
Rather than picking his straight-up score or even birdies or better, I’d rather take him relative to the rest of the field. Whether the course plays extremely hard or there are more opportunities for low scores, I think Young will play well enough to be inside the top 20 at the end of the day. Look for him to put a solid score up early and then wait to see if he can stay in a top-20 spot when the round comes to a close. The disadvantage to this prop, rather than one that only depends on him, is that it is not a quick-hitter and won’t close until the round finishes at the end of the day or even later if the round is delayed.
This exciting featured trio tees off at 7:52 a.m ET, so they’ll have the advantage of playing in the morning wave as well. It’s not clear exactly how large an advantage it will be, but the wind is forecast to rise throughout the day.
These three European stars are each capable of piling up birdies or better when they’re at their best, and they have typically fared well in major championships. Since this is a links-style layout, all three should be right at home with the potential to get four or five birdies on their own. Since they each only need to average three birdies or better to get over this total, this seems like a reachable number even in tough scoring conditions.
I highlighted Fleetwood in my top pivot plays and love his sleeper upside this week, especially after his success at Shinnecock in 2018. He had eight birdies or better in his final round charge that week, averaging 3.8 birdies per round for the week. Rory missed the cut that week, but averaged 3.5 birdies or better in his two rounds. Aberg didn’t play in that event, but even when he has struggled this year, the issue is typically that he’s mixing in bogeys with his birdies, not that he can’t find par-breakers.
This pick is a quick-hitter in that it will settle one way or the other as soon as this group finishes up their first round. Since each of these golfers is capable of taking over the lion’s share of this total, I think they’ll manage to combine for nine birdies. If you are looking to be even bolder, you could add some extra value on over 9.5 birdies at +122.
At 1:14 p.m. ET, Puig, Thompson and Stout will tee off from hole No. 1.
Of the three golfers, Puig has the best form and most proven experience. The 24-year-old Spaniard is coming off a T18 at the PGA Championship and a T5 at his last LIV Golf tournament two weeks ago. I highlighted his more extended form in my top sleeper plays for this week’s DraftKings King of the Course and think he’s one of the better rising stars from LIV Golf that will be a nice addition to whatever tour he joins going forward.
Coming off his strong PGA Championship and two made cuts in the past at the U.S. Open, I’m convinced he can compete and contend in major championships. I’m not as confident in the other two players in this group, especially given their shaky recent form.
Davis Thompson finished T45 at the RBC Canadian Open last week and T35 at the Charles Schwab Challenge after missing the cut at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. He hasn’t played the Signature Events or the other major championships this season and missed the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship. Last year, Thompson missed the cut at the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship, although he did pop for a T9 at the U.S. Open in 2024. He hasn’t been in that strong form lately, though, so I like Puig to finish ahead of him on Thursday.
Preston Stout is an amateur who qualified for the U.S. Open by winning the individual title at the 2026 NCAA Division I Championship at La Costa Resort & Spa in Carlsbad, CA. He has a very bright future, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be ready to contend this year. He will be a fun player to watch both this week and in the future, but Puig has a good chance to be able to outperform the 21-year-old in Round 1.
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