The findings come from the National Assessment of Educational Progress' long-term trend (LTT) assessment, which has tracked the math and reading performance of 9- and 13-year-olds since the 1970s.

Nine-year-olds scored an average of 238 out of 500 in math in 2025, up from a recent low in 2022 but still below their 2012 score of 244.

Among 13-year-olds, the average math score was 270, little changed from 2023 and the lowest since the assessment peaked in 2012. The lowest-performing students now show no gains compared with their counterparts who took the same math test in 1978, the National Public Radio news outlet reported.

Lesley Muldoon, executive director of the National Assessment Governing Board, described the findings as "really jarring" in comments to The Washington Post.

"The lack of progress among 13-year-olds raises huge questions and ought to serve as a catalyst for change," she said. "As a nation, we have to bring more focus to the middle school years."

The results also align with separate research from Stanford University's Educational Opportunity Project, which found that nationwide gains in student math achievement began reversing around 2013 after more than two decades of improvement, according to Time magazine.

A young student writes on a chalk board. Illustration photo from Pexels

Many of the 13-year-olds who took the assessment last year are now in high school or preparing to enter high school. Economists warn that weaker math skills could have lasting consequences for both individual earnings and the broader economy.

"People with more skills earn more," Eric Hanushek, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, said.

Hanushek estimates that today's graduates could earn about 8% less over their lifetimes than the Class of 2013 because of lower academic achievement. He projected that the cumulative impact could reduce U.S. economic output by as much as $90 trillion by 2100.

Other researchers have reached similar conclusions. Scholars from Harvard University and Dartmouth College estimated that 48 million students enrolled in public schools during the 2020-21 academic year could collectively lose about $900 billion in lifetime earnings because of pandemic-related learning losses.

In the shorter term, weak math skills could limit educational and career opportunities, according to Courtney Brown, vice president of impact and planning at Lumina Foundation, a higher-education nonprofit.

"If students are struggling with basic, foundational math, it’s really going to narrow the range of credentials they can pursue," Brown said, adding that math skills are essential for careers in health care, business, information technology, advanced manufacturing and many other fields.

Hanushek compared the economic impact of declining math achievement to high blood pressure, saying the consequences can build gradually before becoming apparent.

"What it comes out to is a huge number that we have to pay attention to because it affects our position in the world, frankly."

Despite the decline, Matthew Soldner, acting director of the Institute of Education Sciences and acting commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, said the decades of improvement before 2013 showed that stronger performance remains achievable.

"I take from it that we have seen high performance is indeed possible, and is something that we can achieve again in the future," Soldner said.