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Time is Not a Label: Continuous Phase Rotation for Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Agentic Memory NovBench: Evaluating Large Language Models on Academic Paper Novelty Assessment Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? 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A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy ReFEree: Reference-Free and Fine-Grained Method for Evaluating Factual Consistency in Real-World Code Summarization From Query to Counsel: Structured Reasoning with a Multi-Agent Framework and Dataset for Legal Consultation CodaRAG: Connecting the Dots with Associativity Inspired by Complementary Learning Think in Sentences: Explicit Sentence Boundaries Enhance Language Model's Capabilities CircuitSynth: Reliable Synthetic Data Generation ASPIRin: Action Space Projection for Interactivity-Optimized Reinforcement Learning in Full-Duplex Speech Language Models Computational Implementation of a Model of Category-Theoretic Metaphor Comprehension CoSToM:Causal-oriented Steering for Intrinsic Theory-of-Mind Alignment in Large Language Models Should We be Pedantic About Reasoning Errors in Machine Translation? 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Evaluating Escalation Behavior in Automation with Language Models Kill-Chain Canaries: Stage-Level Tracking of Prompt Injection Across Attack Surfaces and Model Safety Tiers Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection via Dual-Branch Reconstruction and Autoregressive Flow-based Residual Density Estimation On the Spectral Geometry of Cross-Modal Representations: A Functional Map Diagnostic for Multimodal Alignment Structured Exploration and Exploitation of Label Functions for Automated Data Annotation MolPaQ: Modular Quantum-Classical Patch Learning for Interpretable Molecular Generation QuanBench+: A Unified Multi-Framework Benchmark for LLM-Based Quantum Code Generation Generating High Quality Synthetic Data for Dutch Medical Conversations Re-Mask and Redirect: Exploiting Denoising Irreversibility in Diffusion Language Models Reinforcement-aware Knowledge Distillation for LLM Reasoning SubQuad: Near-Quadratic-Free Structure Inference with Distribution-Balanced Objectives in Adaptive Receptor framework A Horizon-Aware Decision-Support Framework for Demand Forecasting Model Selection in Resilient Production Planning H-AdminSim: A Multi-Agent Simulator for Realistic Hospital Administrative Workflows with FHIR Integration AgencyBench: Benchmarking the Frontiers of Autonomous Agents in 1M-Token Real-World Contexts Reasoning Models Will Sometimes Lie About Their Reasoning Multi-agent Adaptive Mechanism Design Relational Visual Similarity From Navigation to Refinement: Revealing the Two-Stage Nature of Flow-based Diffusion Models through Oracle Velocity On-the-Fly Adaptation to Quantization: Configuration-Aware LoRA for Efficient Fine-Tuning of Quantized LLMs STCast: Adaptive Boundary Alignment for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting
Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoning
Xiaoming Shi, Siqiao Xue, Kangrui Wang, Fan Zhou, James Y. Zhang · 2023-05-26 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework -- thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models -- could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.