Thanks to the global phenomenon El Nino, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall for most of the country, and weather experts in the State believe similar conditions may prevail in most of Andhra Pradesh this year.

However, according to the forecast given by the IMD in its report, ‘Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during June–September, 2026,’ on Friday, May 29, a few areas in the State, especially those in the central and northern region, may see an exception.

According to the forecast, while Rayalaseema and southern part of the State may receive below-normal rainfall during the monsoon, there is a 34-45% probability of a few districts in the central and northern part of the State receiving normal to above-normal rainfall. But, weather experts were also quick to add that it is too early to say anything.

“There is only a slight probability of a few areas in the State receiving normal to above-normal rainfall, but we cannot say yet how it is going to pan out since the forecast is for four months,” said IMD, Amaravati, Senior Scientist S. Karunasagar.

Weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in June, in July-August weak to moderate conditions may prevail, and in August-September moderate to strong conditions may prevail. Generally, A.P. receives its chief amount of rainfall in the months of August and September.

The IMD also gave temperature and rainfall forecast for June. There is a slight probability of Rayalaseema receiving above-normal rainfall next month, but the rest of the State may receive below-normal rainfall.

Due to the El Nino conditions, the maximum and minimum temperatures and the heatwave days are going to be above-normal in Andhra Pradesh in June, the IMD said in its report.

But, the heat will not be as bad as it was in May, said IMD-Amaravati Director S. Stella. The temperatures will decrease gradually in the coming months, she added.

“However, when there is no rain, no cloudy skies, the temperatures are expected to rise. We may see three-four heatwave days in June. Higher temperatures will then lead to a decrease in groundwater levels, eventually impacting agricultural activities,” she said.

One can expect a deviation of 3-4 degree Celsius from the normal in the maximum temperatures. Proper water management and crop planning are important, she stressed.

Both the experts said it is only a wait and watch situation now as the weather patterns emerge.