The conflict in the Middle East is pushing India, which imports 80% of its oil and gas, to accelerate its shift to renewables, but the country is also dependent on imports for the minerals and rare earth metals needed to power its green transition.
India aims to install 500 gigawatts of green energy capacity including solar, wind and hydropower by 2030, alongside expanding battery storage and electric transport.
The country's latest climate goals, announced last month, also aim for 60% power capacity from non-fossil sources by 2035, which could further increase demand for critical minerals.
While India produces some green minerals like copper and graphite, it remains highly dependent on imports for several others such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.
A report by NITI Aayog, the government's premier think-tank, found demand for these minerals is likely to rise sharply by 2030, driven by demand for renewable energy, storage and electric vehicles.
A separate analysis by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry and Deloitte warned this rising demand could expose India to supply chain risks unless it built domestic capabilities.
India's energy transition is increasingly tied to securing these minerals and building processing capacity, areas where it remains dependent on foreign suppliers.
It also faces difficult choices on where to invest, whether to prioritise mining, processing or recycling, each requiring time, capital and technological capability, energy experts told Thomson Reuters Foundation.
"Critical minerals are a real strategic vulnerability for India. The more immediate weak link is processing and refining, not just mining," said Sehr Raheja, programme officer at the Centre for Science and Environment, a Delhi-based think tank.
"Batteries, electric vehicles and clean-tech manufacturing are more directly exposed, but the broader power transition is not immune," Raheja said.
Building the entire value chain domestically will take time, said Saloni Sachdeva Michael, lead energy specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, an energy policy think-tank.
Last year India launched a National Critical Mineral Mission to boost domestic supply through mining, recycling and overseas sourcing. But progress has been slow, with limited participation in mining auctions, long project timelines, and land and environmental hurdles.
While India is focusing on expanding mining of these minerals, the bigger hurdles lie in processing and refining them.
"Even if companies want to set up refining units, there are gaps around financing, technology and clarity on who will buy the processed materials," Sachdeva said, adding that cost competitiveness with global suppliers is a concern.
The global race for these minerals is intensifying. Resource-rich countries, particularly in Africa, are pushing to capture more value domestically through processing, while China dominates refining and major economies such as the United States and European Union are moving to lock in supply chains.
While India is a late entrant in this race, Sachdeva said it could still build a role in processing, refining and recycling, even if it continues to rely on imports for some materials.
India is the third-largest producer of electronic waste and is making early investments to recover more minerals from waste. "Recycling is the lowest hanging fruit for India right now," Sachdeva said.
For India, Raheja and Sachdeva said the challenge was no longer just adding renewable capacity, but building the material backbone needed to support it in a tightening global supply system.
Published on April 8, 2026