JM Financial

Target: ₹450

CMP: ₹

We hosted the management of NTPC and NGEL, and garnered insights about the company and facets of the power story playing out in India. Takeaways from our interaction: 9.5-GW addition in FY27E, including 8-GW RE; NIT for 4x700 MWe with separate nuclear and TG package soon.

By FY32E, NTPC would be incurring incremental capex of about ₹6.22 lakh crore. Of this, NGEL would be incurring capex of about ₹3 lakh crore.

By 2047E, NTPC expects to have 30 GW of nuclear capacity out of the total 100 GW planned for India. The company has already started work on 2.8-GW Mahi Banswara project, which is expected to achieve first criticality by FY32E.

.

Total capex for the plant would be around ₹50,000 crore

At March-end 2026, India’s installed capacity stood at 533 GW, of which 249 GW/282 GW is thermal/non-fossil-based capacity.

As per CEA projections, India is expected to add 683 GW capacity by FY36E, of which 600 GW would be non-fossil based capacity. The total installed capacity of NTPC group stands at 91 GW (74 GW/17 GW of thermal/non-fossil-based capacity).

The group holds nine allocated coal blocks with aggregate peak capacity of 92 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). In FY26, operational output reached 48 mt, accounting for roughly 18 per cent of NTPC’s total fuel consumption.

We maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of ₹450, valuing the stock at 2.6x March 2028E regulated equity for the thermal business and the RE business at NGEL’s market cap, implying 1.5x P/B FY28E.

Published on June 16, 2026