Hong Kong has opened a two-month public consultation period on its first Chinese-style five-year plan, aiming to release the blueprint in the third quarter and align itself more closely with Beijing’s goals—particularly development of the Greater Bay Area of southern China.

The move is widely seen as a shift from the laissez-faire capitalism Hong Kong is known for, fueling debate over the city’s economic future. But Janice Tse, the city’s secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs, stressed that the plan will help Hong Kong serve the cause of national development while upholding its free-market economy.

“Aligning with the national 15th five-year plan does not replace the free market,” she said at a briefing on June 15, referring to the 2026–2030 plan that the Chinese leadership approved at the annual legislative congress in March. “Rather, it offers a clear vision and strategic planning through major policies and allows the market to develop more stably and clearly.”

Sonny Lo, an honorary professor of politics at the University of Hong Kong, said central planning can be good for a market economy, and it does not necessarily mean that Hong Kong is ditching capitalism.

“The central authorities think that Hong Kong was not doing good enough in planning. So they want Hong Kong to align with central authorities under the leadership of the incumbent Chief Executive John Lee,” Lo said in a phone interview.

Other observers worry that adopting a topdown plan based on Beijing’s directives—beyond the policy address and budget Hong Kong’s administration already delivers each year—could affect the city’s appeal.

“The territory is giving away one of its long-time advantages as a free-wheeling international gateway city or a regional hub based on market principles,” said Ryoichi Hisasue, a research fellow at the Institute of Developing Economies affiliated with the Japan External Trade Organization.

Inspired by the Soviet Union, China set out its first five-year plan in the 1950s. In the 15th edition, one key goal pertaining to Hong Kong is to promote the Greater Bay Area, integrating the development of the city with that of Macao, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other urban centers. The idea is to create an economic hub to rival Silicon Valley or the Tokyo Bay area.

The core of the Hong Kong component is the Northern Metropolis, a long-touted urban development project near the border with Shenzhen, designed to turn farmland and wetlands into a thriving tech hub. The endeavor is a major focus in the public consultation document Hong Kong’s government released this week.

At 27 pages, it lists goals that include speeding up development of the technology hub, a university town and housing near the mainland border.

Lo, however, cautioned that the proposals still lack clarity. “Some of the goals will take more than five years to complete,” he said, adding that questions remain. “In the many development items in the Northern Metropolis, which should be prioritized in the coming five years? Which should go next? Also, we are not clear who are the parties responsible.”

Shortly after the consultation period kicked off, the Beijing official overseeing Hong Kong and Macao affairs, Xia Baolong, visited the two special administrative regions and inspected their Greater Bay Area projects—the Northern Metropolis in Hong Kong as well as Hengqin, an island jointly managed by Macao and the mainland province of Guangdong.

Under Beijing’s spotlight, the Hong Kong government intends to pull HKD 150 billion (USD 19.1 billion) from its currency war chest to fund the Northern Metropolis, although it has just recovered from its post-pandemic deficits.

Government-driven initiatives are not immune to growing pains. Tenant pullouts have hit 11 Skies, a flagship shopping mall part of a HKD 100 billion (USD 12.8 billion) Greater Bay Area development project near Hong Kong’s international airport. Its developer, New World Development, had said the mall would “open in phases from 2022 to 2025.”

During a visit to the property last month, the ground floor was largely deserted, with all escalators cordoned off. Only two eateries, including a coffee shop, were operating.

Asked about 11 Skies’ slow start, Hong Kong transport secretary Mable Chan said in a written reply on June 17 that “in view of the everchanging behavioural patterns of consumers and visitors in recent years,” the city’s airport authority is “in close discussion with the developer to plan the future positioning, theme, trade mix, and operating model of the mall.” In line with completion of other projects in the area, she said the mall is “expected to come into operation in 2028 onwards.”

While Hong Kong crafts its first five-year plan, Macao is formulating its third. Its 116-page consultation papers are more comprehensive than Hong Kong’s and include development targets for Hengqin, which was designated an economic zone in 2009 to diversify Macao’s casino-dominated economy. Yet, despite years of development and a skyline now crowded with skyscrapers, some observers call the island a “ghost town.”

Hisasue, the researcher, likened Hong Kong to “a natural fishing ground” that has been “turned into a fish farming pond by Beijing” in recent years. Extending the analogy, he said that artificially grown fish—business opportunities—”may be your choice, but they’re surely not the same fish that you used to see and taste in the past.”

Hong Kong’s five-year plan will span two leadership terms, bridging the current Lee administration and a new cabinet due to take office in July 2027, after a chief executive election.

Beijing introduced a national security law in Hong Kong in 2020, and security hawk Lee won the chief executive vote in 2022 as the sole candidate in rubber-stamp balloting. He has yet to clarify whether he intends to seek a second term.

Since Lee’s administration may have one year to go, Lo said that “they need to be cautious when drafting, which is why the timeline [of the goals] remains somewhat vague.”

Increasingly, Hong Kong’s government has been aligning itself with mainland policies and expressing gratitude for new initiatives. On June 18, Lee thanked the central government and mainland regulators for the launch of five-year government bond futures in the city, which will start trading on August 3.

Lee said this “marks an important development milestone, providing an effective offshore risk management tool for investors,” adding that his government has been “working with the mainland” on the new investment tool.

The chief executive emphasized that this is part of the long-term planning with which the territory is trying to conform. “The national 15th five-year plan,” he said, “indicates clear support for Hong Kong in consolidating and enhancing its status as an international financial center.”

This article first appeared on Nikkei Asia. It has been republished here as part of 36Kr’s ongoing partnership with Nikkei.

Note: HKD figures are converted to USD at rates of HKD 7.84 = USD 1 based on estimates as of June 23, 2026, unless otherwise stated. USD conversions are presented for ease of reference and may not fully match prevailing exchange rates.