Many Ukrainians welcomed the overwhelming election defeat of Viktor Orbán in neighboring Hungary last weekend. It is easy to understand why. For years, Orbán’s government had served as a pro-Russian voice within NATO and the European Union, while also consistently obstructing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration and blocking efforts to back the Ukrainian war effort.

There is now guarded optimism in Kyiv that Orbán’s departure will mean more European support for Ukraine in the fight against Russia, along with a clearer pathway toward the country’s eventual EU membership. These hopes are shared in numerous European capitals. However, a potential new obstacle is now looming on the horizon. With Bulgaria set to vote on April 19 in the country’s parliamentary elections, there is a chance that Russia may soon secure a new ally in Brussels.

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If current polling data proves accurate, Bulgaria’s pro-Russian former president Rumen Radev could replace Orbán within the European Union as the bloc’s strongest anti-Ukrainian voice and defender of Russian interests. As president of Bulgaria from 2017 until his resignation earlier this year to run for parliament, Radev condemned EU sanctions against Russia and opposed efforts by the Bulgarian defense industry to supply Ukraine with ammunition.

A former air force general and Communist Party member, Radev has been no friend of United States either. In June 2019, he vetoed the Bulgarian government’s acquisition of sixteen F-16 fighter jets from the US. The veto was so unpopular that parliament overrode it. The deal went forward, but critics saw the incident as evidence of Radev’s anti-American position.

Since stepping down from the presidency, Radev has continued to question his country’s support for Ukraine. In March 2026, caretaker Bulgarian Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov traveled to Kyiv and concluded a ten-year bilateral security agreement similar to those signed by 28 other nations. Radev used the agreement to attack Gyurov in an apparent bid to curry favor with Russian-leaning Bulgarian voters.

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This week’s Bulgarian parliamentary election will be the country’s eighth since November 2021. Bulgarian voter sympathies are finely balanced, with around one-third favoring Russia and one-third leaning toward Europe, leading to slim majorities and weak coalitions that tend to rapidly unravel. Radev’s nine years as president mean he is widely viewed as a stability candidate in a time of prolonged political turmoil.

As the current election campaign comes to an end, Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria political party is leading in the polls with around 30 percent. If this translates into votes, he will be in a position to form a new administration together with some smaller pro-Russian parties.

A Radev-led government would be bad news for Ukraine and would represent a significant win for Russia. In the short term, this would likely mean an end to Bulgarian ammunition supplies to Ukraine, forcing NATO to seek other sources. Meanwhile, the US-backed northern corridor for energy supplies to Eastern Europe would lose out in favor of Turk Stream, the last major energy pipeline bringing Russian gas to Europe.

In a broader context, a Bulgaria led by Radev could potentially replace Hungary as Putin’s proxy within the EU and NATO. This would admittedly be something of a downgrade for the Kremlin, as Radev’s influence would be nowhere near that of Viktor Orbán, at least initially. Nevertheless, there is a very real chance that just days after the Hungarian election removed Russia’s main European ally, a new pro-Kremlin government could take office in Bulgaria, presenting Brussels with a similar set of challenges.

The outcome of Sunday’s vote remains in the balance and will depend heavily on voter turnout. Many Bulgarians have chosen to stay at home during recent elections amid widespread public frustration with the country’s political climate. If this pattern repeats on April 19, it will favor Radev and other pro-Kremlin political forces. However, a higher turnout could lead to the election of a pro-Western government.

Greater public engagement is certainly possible. Last December, hundreds of thousands of Bulgarians took to the streets to protest against the 2026 state budget amid accusations of widespread corruption, leading to the resignation of the government. Russia will be hoping there is no repeat of this protest mood on Sunday.

Jan Surotchak is the former Senior Director for Transatlantic Strategy at the International Republican Institute in Washington.

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.

Image: Outgoing Bulgarian President Rumen Radev waves to supporters as he leaves the Presidency to officialy step down, in Sofia, Bulgaria. January 23, 2026. (REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov)