Here is a state-by-state breakdown of what every major exit poll is saying about West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry — before votes are counted.
Assembly election result 2026 | Results for the five assembly elections will be declared on May 4. The states that went to the polls are West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. Exit polls are out. And the suspense is real.
Will Mamata sweep Bengal again? Can the Left-Congress alliance make a comeback in Kerala? What does Tamil Nadu look like for the AIADMK and DMK? And can the BJP hold Assam?
So what are the exit polls predicting ahead of the counting day? Which party is leading where? And are there any surprise results on the cards? Here is a state-by-state breakdown of what every major exit poll is saying about West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry — before votes are counted.
Assam exit poll 2026
In Assam, pollsters have predicted a landslide win for the BJP+, with 75-100 seats in its kitty. The Congress is likely to be a distant second, with a maximum of 40 seats, and others are likely to score small gains.
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| Pollsters | BJP+ | Congress+ | Others | |
| India Today-Axis My India | 88-100 | 24-36 | 0-3 | |
| Today's Chanakya | 102 (+/-9) | 23 (+/-9) | 1 (+/-1) | |
| P-MARQ | 82-94 | 30-40 | 1-5 | |
| Matrize | 85-95 | 25-32 | 6-12 | |
| Peoples Pulse | 68-72 | 22-26 | 3-5 | |
| JVC | 88-101 | 23-33 | 2-5 | |
| Poll Diary | 75-86 | 15-24 | 2-5 | |
| Kamakhya Analytics | 85-95 | 26-39 | 0-3 | |
| Poll of Exit Polls | 88+ | 27 | 7 |
The majority of pollsters have predicted a win for the BJP in the tough contest against the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC). People's Pulse and Janmat Polls, however, are the only exceptions that have predicted another clear term for Mamata Banerjee.
READ MORE | ‘We are going to cross 226 seats...’: Mamata dismisses West Bengal Exit Poll results 2026
| Pollsters | TMC | BJP | Left | Congress |
| Today's Chanakya | 100 (+/-11) | 192 (+/-11) | ||
| People's Pulse | 177-187 | 95-110 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Praja Poll | 85-110 | 178-200 | ||
| P-MARQ | 118-138 | 150-175 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Matrize | 125-140 | 146-161 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| JVC | 131-152 | 138-159 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Chanakya | 130-140 | 150-160 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Poll Diary | 99-127 | 142-171 | 2-3 | 3-5 |
| Janmat Polls | 195-205 | 80-90 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Kerala exit poll 2026
For the southern state, pollsters have predicted a strong comeback for Congress in the state. According to the India Today-Axis My India poll, the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF is likely to secure 49-62 seats, whereas the UDF is expected to bag 78-90 seats and the NDA may gain 0-3 seats.
| Pollsters | LDF | UDF | NDA | Others |
| India Today-Axis My India | 49-62 | 78-90 | 0-3 | -- |
| Today's Chanakya | 69 (+/-9) | 64 (+/-9) | 7 (+/-4) | 0 (+/-1) |
| Vote Vibe | 58-68 | 70-80 | 0-4 | -- |
| P-MARQ | 62-69 | 71-79 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Times Now-JVC | 52-61 | 72-84 | 3-7 | -- |
| Matrize | 60-65 | 72-84 | 3-7 | -- |
| Peoples Pulse | 55-65 | 75-85 | 0-3 | -- |
| Peoples Insight | 58-68 | 66-76 | 10-14 | -- |
| Poll of Exit Polls | 59 | 77 | 2 | 2 |
Tamil Nadu exit poll 2026
Most pollsters have predicted a landslide victory for the DMK-Congress combine in the state, with Axis My India being the only exception. The pollster predicted a landslide win for Thalapathy Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), giving it 98-120 out of the total 234 seats in the assembly.
| Pollsters | DMK | AIADMK | TVK | Others |
| India Today-Axis My India | 92-110 | 22-32 | 98-120 | -- |
| Today's Chanakya | 125 (+/-11) | 45 (+/-11) | 63 (+/-11) | 1 (+/-1) |
| Vote Vibe | 103-113 | 114-124 | 4-10 | -- |
| Chanakya Strategies | 145-160 | 50-65 | -- | 18-26 |
| Matrize | 122-132 | 87-110 | 10-12 | 2-6 |
| Times Now-JVC Exit Poll | 75-95 | 128-147 | 8-10 | -- |
| Peoples Pulse | 125-145 | 65-80 | 18-24 | 2-6 |
| Poll of Exit Polls | 130 | 65 | 31 | 8 |
| P-MARQ | 125-145 | 65-85 | 16-26 | 1-6 |
| Peoples Insight | 120-140 | 60-70 | 30-40 | -- |
Puducherry exit poll 2026
This time, almost all the exit polls have predicted a landslide majority for the NDA in the union territory. In the 30-member assembly, the NDA is likely to get anywhere between 16-20 seats, according to India Today-Axis My India. It, however, projected 6-8 seats for the DMK-led alliance and decent inroads for the Vijay-led TVK.
| Pollsters | NDA | DMK+ | TVK+ | Others |
| India Today-Axis My India | 16-20 | 6-8 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Peoples Pulse | 16-20 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 1-12 |
| Times Now-JVC | 15-17 | 11-13 | - | - |
| Praja Poll | 19-25 | 6-10 | - | - |
| Poll of Exit Polls | 17 | 9 | - | 3 |
| Kamakhya Analytics | 17-24 | 6-8 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
Published on: May 2, 2026 7:30 AM IST
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