India is facing a sharp rainfall shortfall this monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) saying the all-India average rainfall was deficient by about 43 per cent as of June 22.

The southwest monsoon has stalled over southern Maharashtra, resulting in rainfall deficits across central India, east and northeast India, the southern peninsula and northwest India. 

The slowdown comes at a crucial stage of the season, raising concerns over kharif sowing and water availability.

Here is a look at what is causing the delay and what it could mean.

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How severe is the rainfall deficit?

According to the IMD, India had received only 45.6 mm of rainfall by June 20 against the normal 84.4 mm for this stage of the monsoon season, translating into a deficit of 46 per cent.

The weather department subsequently said the all-India rainfall deficiency stood at around 43 per cent as of June 22.

The benchmark for comparison is the Long Period Average (LPA), which represents the rainfall India typically receives over several decades.

Why has the monsoon stopped advancing?

The IMD said “the absence of favourable large-scale meteorological conditions” has prevented the southwest monsoon from advancing further into the remaining parts of Maharashtra in recent days.

The weather department identified five major reasons behind the slowdown.

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Reason 1: Why is the Arabian Sea not helping?

The IMD said the current monsoon flow lacks a strong surge from the Arabian Sea.

Such surges are generally responsible for enhanced moisture incursion and widespread rainfall leading to further monsoon advance, the weather department said.

Without these strong moisture-bearing winds, rainfall activity remains subdued and the monsoon struggles to move northward.

Reason 2: Have monsoon winds weakened?

Yes.

According to the IMD, low-level southwesterly winds associated with the monsoon circulation have weakened over the Arabian Sea.

This has reduced the transport of moisture towards Maharashtra and adjoining interior regions, limiting rainfall activity.

Reason 3: What is happening over the Indian Ocean?

The cross-equatorial flow over the western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea — a key source of moisture for the southwest monsoon — has weakened in recent weeks.

The IMD said this has contributed to a reduction in overall monsoon activity across the country.

Reason 4: Are important weather systems missing?

The answer is yes.

The IMD noted that there are currently no significant low-pressure areas, cyclonic circulations or sufficiently strong offshore troughs over the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal.

These weather systems typically help pull the monsoon forward and trigger widespread rainfall.

Their absence has slowed the monsoon's progress.

Reason 5: What role is the Madden-Julian Oscillation playing?

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in a weak phase.

The MJO is a moving system of winds, clouds and atmospheric pressure that travels around the equator and influences tropical rainfall.

During its active phase, it generates more cloud formation over southern India, which is then carried northward by monsoon winds. A weak phase generally results in reduced rainfall activity.

Is El Nino making things worse?

Meteorologists believe so.

The IMD has confirmed that El Nino conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the monsoon season.

El Nino refers to the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Historically, it has often been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India.

The phenomenon alters global wind patterns and can suppress rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.

What about the Indian Ocean Dipole?

Unlike El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.

The IOD measures the temperature difference between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD can sometimes offset the impact of El Niño and support monsoon rainfall.

However, at present, it is neither helping nor hurting the monsoon.

Why does this matter?

The delayed advance of the southwest monsoon comes at a critical period for kharif crops, which depend on timely rainfall for sowing and early growth.

Experts have also warned that persistently weak rainfall can affect water availability and agricultural output if conditions do not improve.

(With inputs from PTI)

Published on: Jun 23, 2026 1:14 PM IST