India’s industrial sector may be staring at a near-term supply shock as sulphuric acid availability tightens, triggered by a combination of geopolitical disruptions and global trade constraints. Industry bodies have warned that stocks could start shrinking within 15–20 days, raising concerns across fertilisers, metals, chemicals and textiles.

At the heart of the issue is sulphur — a critical input used to produce sulphuric acid — whose supply is closely linked to crude oil refining. Any disruption in global oil flows or refining activity immediately impacts sulphur availability, and by extension, sulphuric acid production.

The current stress is being driven by tensions in West Asia, which have disrupted sulphur supply chains from the region. Compounding the problem, China — a major exporter — is expected to halt sulphuric acid exports from May, tightening global supply further. China had exported 4.6 million tonnes in 2025, with India accounting for nearly 9% of shipments .

Why sulphuric acid matters so much

Sulphuric acid is not just another industrial chemical — it is a foundational input across multiple sectors. It is widely used in fertiliser production, particularly for manufacturing phosphatic fertilisers like DAP and NPK. In fact, the entire phosphate fertiliser chain depends on sulphuric acid to convert phosphate rock into usable nutrients.

The scale of dependency is significant. For instance, 3 million tonnes of sulphuric acid can produce enough fertiliser to support crops across nearly 22 million hectares — sufficient to feed hundreds of millions of people annually .

Beyond fertilisers, sulphuric acid is critical for metal processing (especially copper and zinc extraction), oil refining, chemical manufacturing, textiles, detergents, and even batteries. This makes it a systemic input — shortages don’t stay confined to one sector but cascade across the economy.

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Early signs of disruption

Global supply was already tightening before the current crisis. Chinese exports declined sharply in early 2026 due to quotas, with shipments in the first two months nearly halving year-on-year . The anticipated export halt could worsen the imbalance.

At the same time, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a key energy and shipping corridor — threatened a large portion of global sulphur flows. Industry estimates suggest that tens of millions of tonnes of sulphuric acid-equivalent supply could be impacted if disruptions persist.

Impact on key sectors

In India, the fertiliser sector is among the most exposed. Any shortage could disrupt production cycles of phosphate-based fertilisers, with downstream implications for agriculture and food security.

Metals are another vulnerable segment. Sulphuric acid is essential for copper extraction through heap leaching. A disruption here doesn’t just affect copper — it also impacts silver, nearly 70% of which is produced as a byproduct of copper mining . With silver already in structural deficit, supply shocks could quickly translate into price spikes.

Other sectors — including textiles, chemicals, detergents, petroleum refining, and water treatment — rely on uninterrupted sulphuric acid supply for daily operations. Industry estimates suggest many units currently hold barely one to two weeks of inventory.

What about silver and copper?

The potential disruption goes far beyond chemicals and directly impacts global metals markets. If China proceeds with restricting sulphuric acid exports, the consequences could be significant for copper production — and, indirectly, silver supply.

Sulphuric acid is a critical input in copper extraction, particularly in heap leaching, where acid is used to separate copper from ore. This process is widely used in countries like Chile, Morocco and Indonesia. Any disruption in acid supply can constrain copper output, especially given China’s dominant role as a supplier.

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The knock-on effect is on silver. Nearly 70% of global silver production comes as a byproduct of copper mining. So, lower copper output translates directly into reduced silver supply.

This comes at a time when the silver market is already in a structural deficit, with demand exceeding supply for several consecutive years. With limited substitution options in high-growth sectors like solar and electric vehicles, any further supply squeeze could intensify competition and trigger sharp price movements.

India’s preparedness and risks

India’s sulphuric acid demand exceeds 20 million tonnes annually, with a significant portion dependent on imported sulphur. While domestic capacity is expanding — including new plants like IFFCO’s Paradeep facility — the system remains vulnerable to global shocks.

The government has assured farmers that India is fully prepared for the upcoming Kharif season despite global uncertainties, including tensions in West Asia and the Strait of Hormuz. It stated that fertilizer stocks have risen 36.5% year-on-year to 177.31 LMT, ensuring adequate availability of key nutrients like urea, DAP, and NPK. To strengthen supply, the government has already imported 98 LMT of fertilizers and lined up over 17 LMT more. It is also securing long-term global supply agreements and prioritising gas allocation for fertilizer production, ensuring uninterrupted supplies and shielding farmers from international disruptions.