Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open lower on Wednesday, tracking broader Asian markets, as bond yields and oil prices ​remain elevated following US President Donald Trump's renewed threats ‌to strike Iran. Apart from ​global macroeconomic developments, ​investors will ⁠also react to a slew of quarterly earnings.

Markets are likely to remain event-driven in the near term, with volatility expected to persist amid elevated crude oil prices, continued weakening rupee, rising bond yields and mounting inflationary concerns are collectively creating a challenging backdrop for domestic equities, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
 

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 197.50 points, or 0.84 per cent, up at 23,414.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian stocks fell for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as war-driven ​inflation fears hammered bonds. KOSPI tanked more than 2 per cent, while Nikkei dropped 1.5 per cent. Hang Seng fell nearly a per cent.

Wall Street's main indices closed lower on Tuesday with the Nasdaq leading declines amid rising bond yields and inflation fears. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 322.24 points, or 0.65 per cent, to 49,363.88, the S&P 500 lost 49.44 points, or 0.67 per cent, to 7,353.61 and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 220.02 points, or 0.84 per cent, to 25,870.71.
 

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,457.49 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,801.68 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50, VIX & Sensex outlook
The market tested the resistance near the 50-day SMA or 23,800/75,800 and then reversed. From the day's highest level, the market corrected sharply. The short-term market texture is non-directional, and range-bound activity is likely to continue in the near future, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the upside, 23,800/75,800 or the 50-day SMA would act as a crucial resistance zone. While 23,500/75,000 would be the key support area for day traders, on the upside, above 23,800/75,800, the market could move towards 23,875-23,900/76,000-76,200. Conversely, if the index falls below 23,500/75,000, the chances of hitting 23,300-23,250/74,500-74,300 would increase," he added.

Immediate support for Sensex is placed near 74,500-74,600, followed by stronger support around 74,200. A decisive breach below these levels could trigger fresh corrective weakness, said Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Broking. "Immediate resistance is visible near 75,700-75,800, while a breakout above 76,000 may strengthen bullish momentum and open the path toward higher levels."

Sentiment may remain tilted in favour of the bears in the short term. The 23,800 zone continues to act as a crucial resistance level, and unless the index decisively moves above it, sellers may regain control at any point. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 23,400, below which selling pressure could intensify, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

India VIX surged to settle at 19.50, which remains a key concern for the bulls. A sustained decline below the 18-mark would be crucial for bullish momentum to regain strength. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in a broader range of 23,300–23,800 levels in the near term, said Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.
 

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank traded within a narrow range and formed a small-bodied candle on the daily charts, indicating lack of strong directional conviction and subdued price action, said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Despite consolidation, the broader trend of the index remains weak, as it continues to trade below its key moving averages," he said.

Going ahead, the 53,900–54,000 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance. On the downside, the 53,100–53,000 zone is expected to provide crucial support. A decisive break below the 53,000 level could further intensify selling pressure, dragging the index towards the next key support at around 52,500, Shad adds.

Nifty Bank formed a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow highlighting consolidating with corrective bias. It may consolidate in the range of 52,700-54,700. Nifty Bank holding above the key support area of 52,700-52,400 will lead to a pullback towards the recent breakdown area of 54,000 and 54,700, said Bajaj Broking.

"It need to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis in the daily chart and a move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,700 to signal a pause in the recent downtrend. Key support is placed at 52,700-52,400 levels. The daily 14 periods RSI is sustaining below its nine periods average highlighting overall corrective bias," it adds.