Experts say higher fuel prices could increase freight and logistics costs, eventually affecting prices across industries. (photo: REUTERS/Parth Sanyal)
India’s first petrol and diesel price increase in more than four years is expected to trigger broader economic effects, with analysts warning that rising fuel costs could gradually impact household budgets, inflation and demand across multiple sectors. The move comes as surging global crude oil prices, driven by the escalating West Asia conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, begin filtering into India’s domestic economy.
On Friday, state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) raised petrol and diesel prices by around ₹3 per litre after holding rates steady for weeks despite increasing cost pressures. Reports indicate that fuel retailers had been absorbing mounting losses for nearly ten weeks while global energy prices climbed.
The price revision pushed petrol in Delhi up by ₹3.14 per litre to ₹97.77, while diesel increased by ₹3.11 to ₹90.67 per litre. Similar hikes were implemented across major metropolitan cities as international oil prices remained elevated due to uncertainty around energy supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategically critical shipping passage for global oil trade, has remained at the centre of concerns surrounding supply disruptions.
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Oil firms
The decision to raise fuel prices comes after prolonged pressure on oil marketing companies. According to reports, companies had continued selling fuel at older rates despite higher input costs, leading to substantial financial strain.
Arvind Kumar, Director (Refineries) at Indian Oil Corporation, described the revision as a “very small rise” considering the pressure facing the energy sector. He said Indian Oil group companies and refineries were operating at more than 100% capacity to ensure there was no disruption in fuel availability.
“There is a lot of pressure,” he said, while assuring that retail outlets would continue operating without shortages.
Economists said the price increase had been widely anticipated because continued suppression of retail fuel prices was becoming increasingly difficult amid sustained increases in global crude prices.
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Rahul Ahluwalia. Founder-Director of Foundation for Economic Development, said: "The fuel price hike was very important. The ground reality is that oil supply has become more expensive and uncertain. It is important that prices should reflect reality otherwise consumer behaviour will not adjust and this distortion will cause more pain later in the form of shortages, fiscal crisis and lower standards of living for everyone. We should also allow the rupee to depreciate further instead of treating it as a national symbol of strength and protecting its level. This will cause all imports to become more expensive and make exports more competitive, easing the pressure on the current account."
Freight costs
Experts believe the impact of higher fuel prices could extend far beyond the transportation sector. Increased fuel costs often translate into higher freight and logistics expenses, which eventually affect pricing across industries.
Mrunmayee Jogalekar, Research Analyst – Institutional Equities at Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates, said the fuel price increase could have a “broad-based effect” across sectors because of higher transportation costs.
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She noted that sectors such as paints have already witnessed raw material inflation leading to price increases exceeding 10%. While freight costs account for roughly 5–6% of revenues in some sectors, further large increases in fuel costs could influence pricing decisions and affect margins.
The FMCG sector may also face additional pricing pressure. According to Jogalekar, inflation in crude-linked inputs and commodities such as palm oil had already triggered calibrated price hikes across categories, and additional increases could follow as overall costs rise.
The automobile sector may also see uneven effects. Commercial vehicle demand appears most vulnerable since fleet operator profitability is directly linked to fuel expenses. Passenger mobility segments, however, have remained relatively resilient so far due to lower financing costs and stable inflation conditions.
Difficult but necessary?
Some economists believe aligning fuel prices with global realities may be painful in the short term but necessary over the long run.
Piyush Doshi, Operating Partner at Foundation for Economic Development, said the current increase addresses only a fraction of the adjustment required to fully reflect global oil prices and currency pressures. He argued that realistic pricing could encourage behavioural shifts such as lower fuel consumption, increased public transport use and faster adoption of electric vehicles.
With geopolitical uncertainty showing little sign of easing, analysts expect fuel pricing, inflation and energy security to remain key economic themes in the months ahead.
Published on: May 15, 2026 1:31 PM IST
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