Summary

• Ondas is positioned as a diversified UAS, C-UAS, and UGV provider, leveraging recent acquisitions to build a 'system-of-systems' platform.
• I estimate a Fair Value of $11.8 per share, representing 29% upside, based on robust 10-year revenue growth across drone-in-a-box, C-UAS, UGV, and connectivity markets.
• The current strategy involves a cautious 0.25x position, with the potential to increase exposure pending organic growth clarity and post-acquisition cash flow break-even estimates.
• Key risks include acquisition integration, cash burn, delayed profitability, and very high uncertainty in long-term growth projections; position sizing remains conservative until visibility improves.

Investment Thesis

The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have dramatically redefined military tactics. We can see UASs (Unmanned Aircraft Systems), or drones, worth tens of thousands of dollars destroying tanks or other military systems worth millions. And

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ONDS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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