惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
B
Blog
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
J
Java Code Geeks
腾讯CDC
D
Docker
G
Google Developers Blog
D
DataBreaches.Net
雷峰网
雷峰网
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
The Cloudflare Blog
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
量子位
美团技术团队
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More

All Articles on Seeking Alpha

All Eyes On Cencora, A Healthcare Supplier That Could See Lots More Upside Simply Good Foods Doesn't Look Like A Growth Stock Anymore Applied Digital: Post-Earnings Clarity Confirms An Accelerated Path To $1 Billion NOI Target IBIT: Why I Stepped To The Side (Technical Analysis) (Rating Downgrade) XES: Oil Service Stocks Turn Pricey; Why It's Time To Take Profits (Rating Downgrade) The Only Dividend Strategy I'd Trust In A 3.5% Fed Funds World Opera: AI-Driven Advertising Prospects - Upside Potential And Rich Dividend Yields RenaissanceRe: Preferred Stock Hasn't Been This Appealing In Years Q1 Earnings Kick Off With Major Banks' Results: Bank of America, Netflix In Focus Sezzle: Consolidation Completed, Re-Rating Ahead Bitmine Immersion Q2 Preview: Ethereum Thesis Facing Important Report Card I Am Sharing 2 Of My Retirement High-Yield Gems The Software Narrative Is Leaking Badly Again Thanks To Anthropic Mythos The Muni Market Looks Appealing In Q2 AVIV: Should Keep Rising If The Ceasefire Holds Foundayo Explained: Lilly's New Weight Loss Pill And The Amazon Effect Sabesp: A New Privatization As An Opportunity! EchoStar: Potential Bull Trap At Play - Take Gains Off The Table Teladoc Health: Improving Fundamentals Support A Turnaround Story March CPI Inflation: 5 Reasons To Stay Calm Two 12%+ Yielding BDC Bargains (One Is My Top Deep-Value Pick) TechnipFMC: We Prefer Saipem With More Room To Improve Tesla: From Bye-Bye To Buy-Buy (Rating Upgrade) DMB: Vulnerable To High Interest Rates Western Midstream: A 9% Yield That Still Grows In A Downturn IQQQ: Tax-Efficient Income From The Nasdaq But Does Not Protect Against Declines Qualys Share Price Pulled Down By Potential Cybersecurity Disruptor S&P 500: A Dead Money Era May Be Here. How To Thrive In It Vistance Networks Looks Better Than Before With Powerful Earnings Growth Commerce Bancshares: Valuation, Not Quality, Is The Problem
Microsoft Stock Is Not Cheap: Drop To Multi-Year Lows Lik...
Paul Franke · 2026-06-20 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • Microsoft remains overvalued versus software peers, trading at 23x normalized earnings compared to Adobe's 11x, despite similar growth prospects.
  • Heavy selling pressure in the stock and weak free cash flow yield (2.6%) suggest further downside risk, with a realistic probability of new lows below $352 in 2026.
  • My view is to Sell/Avoid MSFT until price approaches $300, where a more attractive risk/reward profile may emerge for long-term buyers.
  • Analyst expectations for 15%+ annual sales and EPS growth rates between 2026-28 support eventual upside, but valuation and macro risks warrant caution until a more significant price correction.
Trendy banner 3d poster image photo collage of shocked businesswoman graph development dollar sign success percent question

Deagreez/iStock via Getty Images

I know most analysts and investors are excited to buy Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) in the middle of 2026, after a major dump in the share quote. However, further downside cannot be ruled out. Why? Because other SaaS stocks have

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ADBE, DOCU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

All opinions expressed herein are not investment recommendations and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions. The author is not acting in an investment advisor capacity and is not a registered investment advisor. The author recommends investors consult a qualified investment advisor before making any trade. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates herein are forward-looking statements based upon certain assumptions that should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur. This article is not an investment research report but an opinion written at a point in time. The author's opinions expressed herein address only a small cross-section of data related to an investment in securities mentioned. Any analysis presented is based on incomplete information and is limited in scope and accuracy. The information and data in this article are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The author expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the service and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained herein. Any and all opinions, estimates, and conclusions are based on the author's best judgment at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The author undertakes no obligation to correct, update, or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional materials. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.