Summary

• U.S.-listed REITs, a leading indicator, have transitioned from recovery into expansion, while distress, a lagging indicator, is showing early signs of peaking.
• The NCREIF Property Index posted a relatively modest year-over-year total return of +4.9% in 1Q26.
• The most compelling alpha opportunities ahead may be in the property types and markets generating the highest annualized rent growth.

By Rich Hill, Senior Managing Director - Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy

The 2026 Mid-Year Outlook: Resilient Recovery made the case that the CRE recovery remains intact.

• Private valuations continue to rise, debt