Summary

• Gold import duty was raised sharply by 9% - from 6% to 15%, the steepest increase on record - alongside broader regulatory tightening.
• Domestic gold prices have not yet fully reflected the duty hike amid weak demand and ample supply; local markets are currently in deep discount from the landed price.
• Past trends indicate that higher duty increases unofficial inflows, although official imports remain relatively resilient.
• Gold demand is expected to moderate in 2026, with jewellery and bar and coin demand projected to decline by 50–60t (~10% y/y) on account of the import duty hike.

Policy actions on gold imports

Since early April, the government has adopted a series of measures aimed at moderating gold imports. These have been part of a broader push to conserve foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical uncertainty

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