Summary

• Tech markets are rallying despite geopolitical risks, but looming supply chain and oil disruptions threaten a forced correction, especially in overbought chips.
• Retail-driven tech momentum adds to vulnerability; any oil shock could trigger a sharp reversal as expectations are priced for perfection and earnings become a test, not a catalyst.
• Global oil supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict are still underappreciated by futures markets, with inventories near eight-year lows and a billion barrels lost.
• We expect good news from the Trump-Xi summit later this week, specifically on the U.S.-Iran and AI fronts.
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Markets are breaking new highs in May, ditching the “sell in May and go away” motto. This kind of tech momentum is not unfamiliar to anyone who has been in the market since 2023, but context matters more this

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