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China’s GDP Beats Expectations Amid Intensifying Global H...
ING Economic and Financial Analysis · 2026-04-16 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • China produced a solid first-quarter GDP read, as strong tertiary industry growth and solid industrial activity helped offset still sluggish consumption and investment and a drop in the first-quarter trade surplus.
  • Higher energy prices could begin to drag on growth in the months ahead.
  • Value added of industry rose 5.7% YoY in March, down from the 6.3% YoY YTD level in the first two months of the year, but still stronger than market consensus and our slightly more optimistic forecast.
  • Auto sales remained sluggish, down -11.8% YoY in March and -9.1% YoY YTD in 1Q26.
China Business Downtown and Financial District City of Chinese, china flag depicted in paint colors on multi-storey residential

Thapakorn Rujipak/iStock via Getty Images

By Lynn Song, Chief Economist, Greater China

External demand continues to be a key growth driver for growth

But rising import costs could start to cut into growth

China's GDP started 2026 off strong