Summary

• The ceasefire gave the stock market the “move past the war” catalyst it had spent the prior week preparing for. The next hurdle will be the wave of bank earnings this week.
• A big monthly jump of 0.9% in CPI inflation didn’t phase stocks, bonds, or expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, because markets were expecting 1.0%. However, the U. Michigan 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% vs. expectations of 4.2%.
• After dropping more than 3% below its 200-day moving average, the S&P 500 has closed higher than 1% over the 200-day twice. History’s last 20 such occurrences suggest the recent low is durable.

By Geoff Bysshe

After intense negotiations over the weekend with Iran, the end result has been an announcement that the U.S. will blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

A few weeks ago, this news would have likely

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