Summary

• The most straightforward critique of any commodity supercycle thesis is that a sustained commodity rally is, by definition, inflationary.
• The highest-probability scenario, a structurally elevated commodity price floor with significant cyclical volatility, doesn’t support a set-it-and-forget-it long commodity position.
• India’s commodity demand growth is real, and the broader emerging market infrastructure buildout adds genuine incremental demand.

The commodity supercycle thesis is everywhere right now. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, one of the most widely read strategists on Wall Street, recently declared “commodities the biggest trade of the next five

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