PIMCO·2026-06-18·via All Articles on Seeking Alpha
Summary
Private credit’s addressable market is big, but not as big as you may have heard: Popular estimates often lump together every loan that could theoretically be refinanced privately, overstating how much business private lenders are likely to capture versus banks and public markets.
Where private credit really has an edge is asset-based finance: When loans are backed by tangible cash flows such as mortgages, auto loans, equipment leases, or aircraft, banks are increasingly willing to step back, and private lenders may be well-positioned to step in.
A disciplined estimate puts the long-run opportunity at $6 trillion – $8 trillion: That figure strips out loans already packaged into securities, held by insurance companies, or owned by existing private funds, leaving the slice that could genuinely shift from traditional lenders to private credit over time.
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One of the most debated topics in private credit is the size of the investment opportunity – or, in industry parlance, the total addressable market (TAM). But the way TAM is typically framed can be misleading. Properly defined, the concept applies mainly to
