South Africa could lift its medium-term growth rate to between 3-4% if the state sustains the faster execution of structural reforms now underway, Standard Bank’s CEO told Semafor, arguing that the biggest remaining obstacle was restoring the rule of law.

Sim Tshabalala’s comments at Semafor World Economy in Washington, DC add weight to a growing view in business cycles that the country’s reform cycle is finally beginning to translate into measurable economic gains.

Tshabalala said the reforms driving early gains in energy, logistics, and water infrastructure were designed under the reform acceleration unit set up by the then African National Congress government in 2020 — but that the current coalition government had accelerated their execution.

He described the coalition anchored by the ANC, the Democratic Alliance, IFP, and Freedom Front Plus — as a centrist formation that maintained policy orthodoxy while speeding up delivery. “The faster [reforms] are executed, the faster the country will grow,” he said.

Tshabalala identified the rule of law as the most urgent and politically sensitive reform frontier. “There’s a direct correlation between the rule of law and GDP growth,” he said.