A further prolonging of the Strait of Hormuz closure risks a historic energy shock, analysts warned.

Despite a disruption of almost 1 billion barrels of oil, crude prices have remained below their 2022 peak, thanks to large reserves, US exports, and expectations that the strait would reopen. Morgan Stanley said if no agreement was reached by late June, oil could exceed $130 a barrel.

JPMorgan, meanwhile, said in a note that crude shortages would most impact refined products, and forecast that US pump prices could hit $5 a gallon, up from below $3 in February. The US energy secretary refused to rule out the possibility and floated suspending gasoline taxes. Asian nations are turning to coal, the Financial Times reported.