The number of UAE companies planning to cut their staff numbers has more than tripled to 25%, up from just 7% three months ago, according to a survey from US recruiting firm ManpowerGroup. Given the UAE does not publish consistent labor market data, the survey of 546 employers offers a rare forward-looking read on sentiment.

Geopolitics and economic uncertainty were the most cited reasons among employers who said they plan to reduce headcount. Large companies with thousands of employees are the most optimistic — a third expect to hire — but smaller businesses are more likely to trim staff. The logistics and trade sector, which has been hit hardest by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, was the only major area to turn negative on hiring; finance, healthcare, and public-sector employers still plan to add staff. The pendulum has swung more dramatically in the UAE compared to any other country in the Middle East in part because the country was on a hiring spree prewar.