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Semafor

US inflation jumps, though long-term war impact yet to be seen Hospitals consider replacing some radiologists with AI Amazon takes a jab at Nvidia over chips shift VCs step in to fund university upstarts Exclusive: Anthropic is gaining on OpenAI’s revenue, but hasn’t yet eclipsed it Exclusive: AI powerhouses threaten data processing firms A South African artist is changing the way viewers understand Picasso’s Guernica Airbnb faces familiar battle in Cape Town First look at war-related inflation sparks political jostling View: China’s state businesses are reshaping markets in Africa US issues Nigeria travel warning over terrorism, kidnapping FirstRand exits UK business after regulatory hit Afreximbank’s $800M answer to Fitch Exclusive: Navy takes nuclear-powered sub offline after $800 million cost run-up Cuba leader says he will not step down Fed, Treasury summon Wall Street chiefs over AI fears How Bluesky earned its reputation — and why it could be the way of the future China eyes stronger Taiwan influence Orbán slams Hungary’s opposition as he trails in polls Iran war reshapes air travel, perhaps for the long term Tehran residents embrace calm amid tenuous truce Countries lack fiscal capacity to handle war fallout Higher producer prices ease China deflation fears Trump ‘optimistic’ on Iran peace talks Inside the five-year succession plan at a $130B warehouse giant Georges Elhedery on HSBC’s big bets on the Gulf and Asia Warsh’s Fed hearing slips past next week Moore takes on the Sun’s ‘MAGA billionaire’ and more Debatable: AI titans influencing regulation Americans still think taxes are too high, poll finds
View: Energy war targets retirement funds
Tim McDonnel · 2026-05-07 · via Semafor

So far, the main direct threat that average Americans seem to have faced from the Iran War has been higher gasoline prices. But more could be at risk.

On Monday, as US President Donald Trump launched a short-lived naval operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran carried out an air attack against an oil storage terminal in Fujairah, UAE. The port — now one of only a few crucial trade lifelines for the Gulf — has been hit several times during the war, occasionally forcing a pause on oil exports. The storage facility is owned by the energy infrastructure company VTTI, which is jointly owned by the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC, the commodities trader Vitol, and IFM, a private equity firm. IFM’s global infrastructure fund counts some of the largest US public pension funds, including CalPERS and New York State Common, as investors.

Many US pensions have in recent years put a larger share of their assets into the hands of private equity firms, chasing higher returns for retirees. PE, meanwhile, has poured capital into the infrastructure needed to move fossil fuel molecules around the world. Firms like Brookfield, GIP, BlackRock, and Stonepeak own networks of pipelines, terminals, tankers, and more — including many in the Middle East that are now under threat of being either bombed, or at least suspended from service.

Put it together, and wars that revolve around energy infrastructure could pose a new material risk to long-term investors, Jim Baker, executive director of the Private Equity Stakeholder Project, a nonprofit watchdog group, told me. “Until a couple of months ago, most people in private equity didn’t think there was a geopolitical risk in shipping LNG in and out of the Gulf. Events have proved otherwise,” he said. “There’s a question of whether these firms have fully communicated potential risks to their investors.” (IFM didn’t return a request for comment; CalPERS declined to comment.)

Arguably, despite certain physical risks, a war like this one is exactly the perfect time for gutsy investors to dive into the energy midstream, as the consequences of an overreliance on chokepoints drive renewed spending on supply chain diversification, especially in the Gulf. But as Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz — whose firm is pursuing its own risky venture into Middle East energy infrastructure via its acquisition of Lukoil’s global assets — said during Semafor World Economy, markets are bad at assessing geopolitical risk. Retired teachers shouldn’t pay the price.