Building data centers in space could be cost-effective by around 2040, analysis suggested.

Launch costs mean orbital compute is roughly four times the price of terrestrial, SemiAnalysis wrote, and its purported advantages such as easy cooling and constant solar power are overstated.

But by the early 2030s, space data centers could be only around 30% more expensive than terrestrial ones, and if demand zooms upward and public backlash leads to regulatory bottlenecks on Earth, then “space becomes a necessity.”

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is betting on that outcome, arguing that energy shortages, grid connections, and regulatory hurdles will create a scenario that SemiAnalysis modeled as one where “space becomes the only alternative for scaled AI datacenter deployments.”