Rwanda and Mozambique are the two sub-Saharan African countries most exposed to the Middle East war, the ratings agency S&P said, as surging fuel costs and disrupted trade routes threaten to derail fragile economic recoveries.

Rwanda faces a crisis due to its 71% export dependency on Middle Eastern hubs while Mozambique’s vulnerability stems from a junk-rated sovereign credit rating and thin foreign currency reserves that leave little room to absorb external shock, according to an S&P report.

The firm also said South Africa and Nigeria, two of the continent’s largest economies, are somewhat protected from the war’s impact, at least at a macro level: South Africa’s deep capital markets and low foreign-currency debt shield it from volatility, while Nigeria’s rising oil export revenues help offset the fallout of a 65% jump in local fuel costs.