There have never been more brilliant footballers in the world than there are now – one reason it’s so hard to pick a winner of this competition. Knockout ties often come down to which individual delivers – or fails to deliver – at the crucial moment and, with so many countries boasting numerous individuals able to turn a game and humans being inherently unreliable, we can’t know which of them will be grooved – or heartbreakingly, hilariously inept – when the time comes.

But it remains the case that Spain, though not obvious champions, are the hardest team to beat. Things have changed since they won three consecutive competitions 2008-12 – you can’t dominate possession to the same absurd extent once you no longer have Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta – club’s football’s greatest midfield – plus Xabi Alonso, plus another midfielder or two in lieu of strikers.

Yet Rodri and Pedri are pretty handy replacements and, though the control they bring isn’t the same, it’s been replaced with the thrust their champion sides lacked. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams – both expected to be absent today, a precautionary move as they recover from injury – give them a threat in behind and on the outside, while Mikel Oyarzabal, likely to play in between them, is in sensational form at both club and international level.

All of which makes this a tricky – but inspiring – assignment for Cape Verde, making their tournament debut. They qualified top of their group, finishing above a Cameroon side featuring Bryan Mbeumo and Carlos Baleba among others, with only one player – Villarreal defender Logan Costa – playing in one of Europe’s top five leagues. This tells us they’re a settled, organised side and, while they’re better at the back than up front, they’ll be a threat on the counter. As Dailon Livramento, their star attacker said, “We got ourselves into the World Cup, now it’s time to have fun together.”

That attitude makes them a danger even if a comfortable Spain win remains the likeliest outcome here. When, in years to come, we look back on this competition, one of its eternal, affirming memories will be Curaçao’s goal against Germany and Cape Verde are more than capable of delivering us another moment of emotional intensity the like of which only World Cup football can. And really, that’s why we’re here: we can worry about who wins the thing later.

Kick-off: 3pm local, 5pm BST, 12p EDT, 2am AEST.