The 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon that Donald Trump announced on Thursday is desperately needed. It must also be regarded with immense caution. Iran and mediator Pakistan believed that Lebanon was covered by last week’s US-Israel-Iran ceasefire, before Israel unleashed 100 strikes in 10 minutes – killing hundreds and wounding many more on “Black Wednesday”. Lebanon was pulled into this crisis by Mr Trump’s illegal war on Tehran, and should not have been excluded from his truce. The US president, desperately seeking an exit to the broader conflict, is now reining in Mr Netanyahu. But only up to a point.

Israeli forces on Thursday destroyed the last bridge linking Lebanon’s south to the rest of the country and struck a school. The previous day they killed at least four paramedics – the latest of scores to have died. More than 2,100 people have reportedly been killed, including at least 172 children. Thousands have been injured. One in five of the population are displaced, some permanently: having occupied a vast swathe of land, Israel is wiping whole villages from the map. Its own defence minister described that as modelled on its actions in Gaza.

Tuesday’s direct talks between Lebanon and Israel were a striking departure. But Lebanon is not fighting this war, and it does not control Hezbollah, which is. The government has seen new opportunities to assert itself. But it announced the expulsion of Iran’s ambassador a month ago. He remains in place. Hezbollah did not obstruct this week’s talks; Iran also wants to end the wider conflict. But the Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, rejected a US request to speak to Mr Netanyahu. There are limits to this process.

Its prospects are irrevocably tied to US-Iranian discussions, and the gulf between sides is similarly vast. Israel’s starting point is the disarmament of Hezbollah – in the midst of war. Hezbollah demands Israeli withdrawal. Mr Netanyahu, who paid a surprise visit to Lebanon’s south this weekend, said that Israel would expand what it calls a “buffer zone” to protect its citizens. Permanent war suits the Israeli prime minister, and his far-right coalition partners are determined to expand Israel’s borders.

There is real anger in Lebanon at Hezbollah: its rocket attacks upon Israel, in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, triggered this war. But Israel’s devastating attacks have also made the Lebanese government and army look impotent, and left citizens desperate for help which the state cannot provide – driving them towards the militant group. The disruption caused by the displacement of over a million people is magnified by fear that those fleeing Israel’s attacks will be targeted by Israel – endangering any community which takes them in. The spectre of sharpened social and communal divisions in a country which endured years of civil war could hardly be grimmer.

There is increasing disquiet in countries which have long supported Israel, including the US, at its actions. That must translate into real pressure. Lebanon has been presented with a dismal choice between Iranian and Israeli domination. Any pause in the war is welcome. But it must be sustained, and it must truly stop bloodshed. The Israeli military has killed hundreds of Palestinians since Gaza’s ceasefire was declared. Israel was carrying out strikes in Lebanon before this war, despite a previous ceasefire. This one could hardly be more fragile when those seeking it put their own interests before the protection of civilians.

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