India is entering this year’s monsoon season under one of the most concerning climate warnings in recent years, with forecasters warning that a potentially powerful El Nino event could severely disrupt rainfall patterns across the country, News.Az reports, citing India Today.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its first long-range forecast for 2026, released on April 13, that the southwest monsoon — the country’s main rainy season running from June to September — is likely to be below normal or deficient this year.
The warning is linked to a potentially historic El Nino event now forming in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is a periodic warming of the central Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather systems around the world. In India, stronger El Nino conditions usually weaken monsoon winds, reducing rainfall and increasing the risk of droughts. At the same time, some southern coastal regions, including parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, can experience unusually heavy rainfall.
Climate scientists warn that the developing event could become one of the strongest in decades.
“The equatorial Pacific is fast warming up, leading to the development of an El Nino event by June or July,” climate scientist Dr. Madhavan Nair said. “This event could be a very severe El Nino event like we had in 1997 and 2015.”
According to the India Meteorological Department, monsoon rainfall this year is expected to reach only 92% of the long-period average (LPA), placing it in the “below normal” category. The LPA, based on data collected between 1971 and 2020, is around 870 millimeters during the June-to-September monsoon season.
The probability of a deficient monsoon season — defined as rainfall below 90% of the LPA — has risen to 35%, more than double the historical probability of 16%.
Several climate models worldwide indicate that El Nino conditions could fully emerge by the middle of 2026, significantly affecting rainfall distribution across India.
Both the India Meteorological Department and Skymet, India’s leading private weather forecasting company, expect the first phase of the monsoon, especially in June, to remain relatively stable.
However, meteorologists warn that conditions may deteriorate sharply in August and September, when El Nino’s influence is expected to peak and substantially reduce rainfall.
Northern, western, and central India are forecast to face the greatest risk from dry weather conditions, increasing the possibility of prolonged droughts and major agricultural losses.
States such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are considered especially vulnerable during the later monsoon months, while many core monsoon regions in central and western India are also expected to experience below-normal rainfall.
In Madhya Pradesh, regions including Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, Sagar, and Narmadapuram are expected to receive significantly less rain than usual.
Only Ladakh, parts of Rajasthan, the northeastern states, and areas in the northern part of the southern peninsula, including Telangana, are expected to avoid major rainfall deficits.
While drought risks increase across large parts of the country, some southern cities could face the opposite problem. Areas such as Chennai are expected to receive heavy rainfall that may trigger severe flooding and damage.
As forecasts continue to point toward an intense El Nino event, local authorities are closely monitoring the situation in an effort to avoid repeating mistakes made during previous extreme weather episodes.
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