Speaking with news editor Robert Dougherty, UNSW Canberra historian Dr Nicole Townsend argues that recent protests reflect a cyclical resurgence driven by geopolitical instability, not fundamental shift in public opposition to US military cooperation.

Pine Gap dominates anti-bases consciousness not because it is Australia’s only joint facility – several operate under Australia–US agreements, maintaining the fiction that no foreign bases exist on Australian soil – but because of what isn’t publicly known. Townsend emphasises that protesters’ core complaint isn’t demand for disclosure; it’s the philosophical tension: if you cannot tell us what happens here, should it be here? That secrecy, necessary for intelligence operations, defines the facility’s place in public imagination.

What distinguishes the movement is its deliberately assembled coalition. Townsend’s David Scott Mitchell Fellowship research into the Australian Anti-Bases Campaign Coalition reveals extraordinary heterogeneity: unions, teachers associations, Indigenous groups, pro-Palestine activists and Greens politicians coexist under an umbrella targeting US basing. Yet this breadth obscures fragmentation. A recent national survey of 1,500 Australians found roughly one-third neutral on bases – neither supportive nor opposed – complicating assumptions about movement momentum. Lowy polling suggests 50–55 per cent support US basing, 43 per cent opposed.

Historically, these movements spike during geopolitical anxiety – Cold War nuclear fears, Iraq War opposition in 2003 – then subside. Current resurgence reflects Middle Eastern instability and Indo-Pacific uncertainty rather than new anti-American sentiment.

Townsend cautions against predicting trajectory. Media framing shapes which groups appear prominent; political contexts shift suddenly. Precedent exists for direct action targeting defence expos in the 1990s. But whether current momentum continues upward, stabilises or declines depends on variables historians cannot forecast.

The movement remains a barometer of Australian strategic anxiety, not a settled political force.

Enjoy the podcast,
The Defence Connect team