We study black-box detection of machine-generated text under practical constraints: the scoring model (proxy LM) may mismatch the unknown source model, and per-input contrastive generation is costly. We propose SurpMark, a reference-based detector that summarizes a passage by the dynamics of its token surprisals. SurpMark discretizes surprisals into interpretable states, estimates a state-transition matrix for the test text, and scores it via a generalized Jensen-Shannon (GJS) gap between the test transitions and two fixed references (human vs. machine) built once from existing corpora. Theoretically, we derive design guidance for how the discretization bins should scale with data and provide a principled justification for our test statistic. Empirically, across multiple datasets, source models, and scenarios, SurpMark consistently matches or surpasses baselines, demonstrating strong robustness across domains and generators; our experiments on hyperparameter sensitivity exhibit trends that our theoretical results help to explain.