惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
V
Visual Studio Blog
博客园 - 叶小钗
H
Help Net Security
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
U
Unit 42
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
F
Fortinet All Blogs
V
V2EX
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
D
DataBreaches.Net
J
Java Code Geeks
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
A
About on SuperTechFans
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
量子位
C
Check Point Blog
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
小众软件
小众软件
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Moving Aggregate Modified Autoregressive Copula-Based Tim...
Sven Pappert · 2024-02-02 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Copula-based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly this approach assumes a finite Markov order. In reality a time series may not follow the Markov property. We modify the copula-based time series models by introducing a moving aggregate (MAG) part into the model updating equation. The functional form of the MAG-part is given as the conditional quantile function corresponding to a copula. The resulting MAG-modified Autoregressive Copula-Based Time Series model (MAGMAR-Copula) is discussed in detail and distributional properties are derived in a D-vine framework. We show that the stationary distribution implied by the model is not standard-uniform. Hence we propose an adjustment transformation that recovers the desired standard-uniformity. The model nests the classical ARMA model and can be interpreted as a non-linear generalization of the ARMA model. The modeling performance is evaluated by modeling US inflation. Our model is competitive with benchmark models in terms of information criteria.