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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Optimality of the Half-Order Exponent in the Turing-Good ...
Kensuke Okada · 2026-02-23 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Bayes factors are widely computed by Monte Carlo, yet heavy-tailed sampling distributions can make numerical validation unreliable. The Turing--Good identities provide exact moment equalities for powers of a Bayes factor (a density ratio). When these identities are used as Good-check diagnostics, the power choice becomes a statistical design parameter. We develop a nonasymptotic variance theory for Monte Carlo evaluation of the identities and show that the half-order (square-root) power is uniquely minimax-stable: it equalizes variability across the two model orientations and is the only choice that guarantees finite second moments in a distribution-free worst-case sense over all mutually absolutely continuous model pairs. This yields a balanced two-sample half-order diagnostic that is symmetric in model labeling and has a uniform variance bound at fixed computational budget; in small-overlap regimes it is guaranteed to be no less efficient than the standard one-sided Turing check. Simulations for binomial Bayes factor workflows illustrate stable finite-sample behavior and sensitivity to simulator--evaluator mismatches. We further connect the half-order overlap viewpoint to stable primitives for normalizing-constant ratios and importance-sampling degeneracy summaries.