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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Pivotal CLTs for Pseudolikelihood via Conditional Centeri...
Nabarun Deb · 2025-10-07 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In this paper, we study fluctuations of conditionally centered statistics of the form $$N^{-1/2}\sum_{i=1}^N c_i(g(σ_i)-\mathbb{E}_N[g(σ_i)|σ_j,j\neq i])$$ where $(σ_1,\ldots ,σ_N)$ are sampled from a dependent random field, and $g$ is some bounded function. Our first main result shows that under weak smoothness assumptions on the conditional means (which cover both sparse and dense interactions), the above statistic converges to a Gaussian \emph{scale mixture} with a random scale determined by a \emph{quadratic variance} and an \emph{interaction component}. We also show that under appropriate studentization, the limit becomes a pivotal Gaussian. We leverage this theory to develop a general asymptotic framework for maximum pseudolikelihood (MPLE) inference in dependent random fields. We apply our results to Ising models with pairwise as well as higher-order interactions and exponential random graph models (ERGMs). In particular, we obtain a joint central limit theorem for the inverse temperature and magnetization parameters via the joint MPLE (to our knowledge, the first such result in dense, irregular regimes), and we derive conditionally centered edge CLTs and marginal MPLE CLTs for ERGMs without restricting to the ``sub-critical" region. Our proof is based on a method of moments approach via combinatorial decision-tree pruning, which may be of independent interest.