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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Improved bounds and inference on optimal regimes
Julien D. Laurendeau, Aaron L. Sarvet, Mats J. Stensrud · 2024-04-18 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Point identification of causal effects requires strong assumptions that are unreasonable in many practical settings. However, informative bounds on these effects can often be derived under plausible assumptions. Even when these bounds are wide or cover null effects, they can guide practical decisions based on formal decision theoretic criteria. Here we derive new results on optimal treatment regimes in settings where the effect of interest is bounded. These results are driven by consideration of superoptimal regimes; we define regimes that leverage an individual's natural treatment value, which is typically ignored in the existing literature. We obtain (sharp) bounds for the value function of superoptimal regimes, and provide performance guarantees relative to conventional optimal regimes. As a case study, we consider a commonly studied Marginal Sensitivity Model and illustrate that the superoptimal regime can be identified when conventional optimal regimes are not. We similarly illustrate this property in an instrumental variable setting. Finally, we derive efficient estimators for upper and lower bounds on the superoptimal value in instrumental variable settings, building on recent results on covariate adjusted Balke-Pearl bounds. These estimators are applied to study the effect of prompt ICU admission on survival.