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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Bayesian Model for Multiple Change-points Detection in Mu...
Flore Harlé, Florent Chatelain, Cédric Gouy-Pailler, Sophie Acha · 2014-07-12 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This paper addresses the issue of detecting change-points in multivariate time series. The proposed approach differs from existing counterparts by making only weak assumptions on both the change-points structure across series, and the statistical signal distributions. Specifically change-points are not assumed to occur at simultaneous time instants across series, and no specific distribution is assumed on the individual signals. It relies on the combination of a local robust statistical test acting on individual time segments, with a global Bayesian framework able to optimize configurations from multiple local statistics (from segments of a unique time series or multiple time series). Using an extensive experimental set-up, our algorithm is shown to perform well on Gaussian data, with the same results in term of recall and precision as classical approaches, such as the fused lasso and the Bernoulli Gaussian model. Furthermore, it outperforms the reference models in the case of non normal data with outliers. The control of the False Discovery Rate by an acceptance level is confirmed. In the case of multivariate data, the probabilities that simultaneous change-points are shared by some specific time series are learned. We finally illustrate our algorithm with real datasets from energy monitoring and genomic. Segmentations are compared to state-of-the-art approaches based on fused lasso and group fused lasso.