惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

U
Unit 42
小众软件
小众软件
Y
Y Combinator Blog
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
L
LangChain Blog
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
美团技术团队
B
Blog RSS Feed
GbyAI
GbyAI
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
博客园 - 司徒正美
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
腾讯CDC
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
D
Docker
G
Google Developers Blog

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Uniform mean estimation for monotonic processes
Eugenio Clerico, Hamish E Flynn, Patrick Rebeschini · 2025-02-03 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We consider the problem of deriving uniform confidence bands for the mean of a monotonic stochastic process, such as the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a random variable, based on a sequence of i.i.d.~observations. Our approach leverages the coin-betting framework, and inherits several favourable characteristics of coin-betting methods. In particular, for each point in the domain of the mean function, we obtain anytime-valid confidence intervals that are numerically tight and adapt to the variance of the observations. To derive uniform confidence bands, we employ a continuous union bound that crucially leverages monotonicity. In the case of CDF estimation, we also exploit the fact that the empirical CDF is piece-wise constant to obtain simple confidence bands that can be easily computed. In simulations, we find that our confidence bands for the CDF achieve state-of-the-art performance.