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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
A Risk Management Perspective on Statistical Estimation a...
Aurya S. Javeed, Drew P. Kouri, Thomas M. Surowiec · 2023-10-26 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Generalized variational inference (GVI) provides an optimization-theoretic framework for statistical estimation that encapsulates many traditional estimation procedures. The typical GVI problem is to compute a distribution of parameters that maximizes the expected payoff minus the divergence of the distribution from a specified prior. In this way, GVI enables likelihood-free estimation with the ability to control the influence of the prior by tuning the so-called learning rate. Recently, GVI was shown to outperform traditional Bayesian inference when the model and prior distribution are misspecified. In this paper, we introduce and analyze a new GVI formulation based on utility theory and risk management. Our formulation is to maximize the expected payoff while enforcing constraints on the maximizing distribution. We recover the original GVI distribution by choosing the feasible set to include a constraint on the divergence of the distribution from the prior. In doing so, we automatically determine the learning rate as the Lagrange multiplier for the constraint. In this setting, we are able to transform the infinite-dimensional estimation problem into a two-dimensional convex program. This reformulation further provides an analytic expression for the optimal density of parameters. In addition, we prove asymptotic consistency results for empirical approximations of our optimal distributions. Throughout, we draw connections between our estimation procedure and risk management. In fact, we demonstrate that our estimation procedure is equivalent to evaluating a risk measure. We test our procedure on an estimation problem with a misspecified model and prior distribution, and conclude with some extensions of our approach.