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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Robust Confidence Intervals for a Binomial Proportion: Lo...
Minjun Cho, Yuetian Luo, Chao Gao · 2025-09-06 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This paper revisits the classical problem of interval estimation of a binomial proportion under Huber contamination. Our main result derives the rate of optimal interval length when the contamination proportion is unknown under a local minimax framework, where the performance of an interval is evaluated at each point in the parameter space. By comparing the rate with the optimal length of a confidence interval that is allowed to use the knowledge of contamination proportion, we characterize the exact adaptation cost due to the ignorance of data quality. Our construction of the confidence interval to achieve local length optimality builds on robust hypothesis testing with a new monotonization step, which guarantees valid coverage, boundary-respecting intervals, and an efficient algorithm for computing the endpoints. The general strategy of interval construction can be applied beyond the binomial setting, and leads to optimal interval estimation for Poisson data with contamination as well. We also investigate a closely related Erdős--Rényi model with node contamination. Though its optimal rate of parameter estimation agrees with that of the binomial setting, we show that adaptation to unknown contamination proportion is provably impossible for interval estimation in that setting.