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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
When can a posterior predictive check identify the learni...
Nam Anh Le · 2026-06-05 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Generalised Bayesian inference tempers the likelihood by a learning rate $η$ to mitigate model misspecification, and the choice of $η$ is consequential. Zafar and Nicholls (2024) proposed selecting $η$ by a posterior predictive check (PPC): one chooses the smallest $η$ at which a log-likelihood PPC $p$-value is not rejected. An exact, finite-sample analysis of this selector on the Gaussian linear model is given. With known variance and a flat prior, the PPC $p$-value equals $P(χ^2_n > \mathrm{RSS}/σ_0^2)$ for every $η$, so the selector is $η$-invariant; under variance misspecification it is two-sided non-identifying. With unknown variance and the reference prior, the $p$-value depends only on $(n,d,η)$ and not on the realised data or the data-generating process. Consequently the selector's output is fixed before any data are seen, typically collapsing to the smallest grid value, which over-tempers and inflates predictive intervals relative to held-out selection. The phenomenon is a pivotality property specific to the Gaussian scale--location family and the reference prior; it disappears under informative priors. These results delineate the selector's scope, identify a canonical class on which it cannot identify the learning rate, and motivate a cheap, data-free pre-screening diagnostic.