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Posterior Consistency in the Binomial $(n,p)$ Model with ...
Laura Fee Schneider, Thomas Staudt, Axel Munk · 2018-09-07 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Estimating the parameters from $k$ independent Bin$(n,p)$ random variables, when both parameters $n$ and $p$ are unknown, is relevant to a variety of applications. It is particularly difficult if $n$ is large and $p$ is small. Over the past decades, several articles have proposed Bayesian approaches to estimate $n$ in this setting, but asymptotic results could only be established recently in \cite{Schneider}. There, posterior contraction for $n$ is proven in the problematic parameter regime where $n\rightarrow\infty$ and $p\rightarrow0$ at certain rates. In this article, we study numerically how far the theoretical upper bound on $n$ can be relaxed in simulations without losing posterior consistency.